October Predictions: MLB Postseason

The 2008 baseball season has come to an end and we head to the playoffs. Baseball changes in October and that is where the season has gone. The Tampa Bay Rays emerged as baseball’s surprised team and made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The New York Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993. The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians, both preseason favorites to make the postseason, came nowhere close to contention. The Chicago Cubs look to end their century-long World Series title drought. The Los Angeles Dodgers, led by new manager Joe Torre, overcame the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies to win the National League West. Now that October baseball will begin, who will win the 2008 World Series?

The case for the Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays came into the season with a change of uniform, logo, and team name. They became the “Rays” instead of the “Devil Rays”. In spite of 4th place predictions, the Rays’ overcame them by remarkable proportions. The Rays have 96 wins, 25 more than their previous franchise-high. The story of the Rays is a motto coined by manager Joe Maddon. Their mantra is “9=8”, which represents “9 innings of baseball (and 9 hearts on the field) equals 1 of 8 teams to make the playoffs”. The Rays’ pitching went through an incredible breakthrough. Troy Percival joined the Rays and helped their bullpen. A trade with the Twins helped the Rays’ pitching staff acquire Matt Garza and helped the Rays’ defense with shortstop Jason Bartlett. Garza, 24, had a great season but was not shown by his 11-9 record. Garza’s 3.66 ERA was fantastic and also had 3 complete games, 2 of which shutouts. Scott Kazmir and James Shields also proved to be brilliant pitchers. The two had a combined 26-16 record with a 3.54 ERA. Shields too had 3 complete games. Pitchers Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine also proved to be stunning pitchers. They had no major expectations entering the season but went a combined 26-19 (13 wins each). The Rays’ pitching staff had a team ERA of 3.78, 1.75 points lower than last season. Their bullpen has also been very successful. Last season, the Rays had 58 holds, last in the majors. This season, the Rays have 79 holds, which is 4th in all of baseball. The Rays’ offense has also been a great story too. Rookie 3rd baseman Evan Longoria was called up from AAA Durham in late April and has done a magnificent job, hitting 27 homeruns and 85 RBI. Carlos Pena led the Rays with 31 homeruns and 101 RBI. Clutch hitting played a big part for the Rays in 2008. In the late innings of 2008, Akinori Iwamura and the aforementioned Pena hit .301 and .341 respectively. To make room for Evan Longoria, their future 3rd baseman for years to come, they moved Akinori Iwamura to 2nd base full time and flourished. As a team, the Rays’ defense had a .985 fielding percentage, tied for 8th in all of baseball. In 2007, the Rays’ defense had a .980 fielding percentage, tied for 20th in baseball.

So why do the Rays have a shot at the World Series? There were only 2 teams in baseball that had a winning record against the Rays: the Indians and the Yankees, and both of whom are missing the postseason. Pitching phenom David Price has a chance to make the playoff roster as a starter. Price was 12-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in the minor leagues in 2008. The southpaw was drafted last year from Vanderbilt University. A 4-man rotation of Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price would be dominant for now and for the future. The Rays can hit in the clutch as many of their wins have came in their last at-bat. They have a great team now and a team built for the future.

The case for the Chicago Whitesox
The Whitesox, led by manager Ozzie Guillen, made the playoffs for the first time since 2005. In the offseason, the Whitesox acquired Carlos Quentin from the Arizona Diamondbacks for top prospect Chris Carter. Quentin’s impact with the Whitesox was tremendous. He led the American League with 36 homeruns before he was sidelined for almost the entire month of September with a broken wrist. Quentin’s 100 RBI also led the team. Quentin could have won the American League MVP award had he not been injured. Teammates Jermaine Dye and rookie Alexei Ramirez were tied for the team lead in batting average (.290). Dye hit 34 homeruns for the Chi-Sox and Ramirez’s presence gave the Whitesox a huge boost. Jim Thome also hit 34 homeruns and fellow teammates Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher hit 22 and 24 respectively. In the midst of the summer months, the Whitesox traded for former Reds’ outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. Pitching was a good success for the Whitesox too. Gavin Floyd and John Danks were unexpected sources of wealth for Chicago. They had a combined 29-17 record with an ERA under 4.00. Mark Buerhle also had a 15-12 record. Bobby Jenks had an okay season in the closer role, converting 30 of his 34 save opportunities. The Whitesox season was surrounded by controversies surrounding manager Ozzie Guillen. Guillen openly criticized the media and his players over the course of the season. The Whitesox ended the regular season in a 1st place tie with the Minnesota Twins, which forced a 1-game playoff. Jim Thome hit a 461-foot homerun in the 7th inning gave the Whitesox a 1-0 lead, which would be enough for the Whitesox to advance to the playoffs.

But do the Whitesox have a good chance to win it all? They do have some momentum heading into their series with the Rays and they can slug it out, but can they match up with the Rays? The Rays can hit the long ball and can play small ball whereas the Whitesox are primarily a long ball type team. The Rays can outpitch the Sox and Chicago would need to play their hearts out to compete with the other top-tier teams in the playoffs.

The case for the Los Angeles Angels
The Angels entered the 2008 campaign as serious World Series contenders, and ended up doing just that. They suffered injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, two of their top pitchers. They needed Joe Saunders, Jon Garland, and Ervin Santana to fill in for the injured starters. The 3 pitchers amassed for a 46-21 record and a 3.87 ERA. When Lackey came back in mid-May, he started strong and continued strong, having a 3.25 ERA through 23 games pitched. Closer Francisco Rodriguez had accumulated 62 saves this season, shattering the old mark held by Bobby Thigpen (57 saves). The rest of the Angel bullpen also was thriving. Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo had a combined 2.21 ERA and 47 holds. Darren Oliver and Justin Speier also collected a total of 22 saves. LA’s offense also prospered. The newly acquired Torii Hunter and the veteran Vlad Guerrero combined for 48 homeruns and 168 RBI. Chone Figgins led the team with 32 stolen bases. The Angels entered a win-now mentality when they traded for 1st baseman Mark Teixeira, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. With the Angels, Teixeira hit .362 with 13 homeruns and 42 RBI. The Angels were the 1st team in baseball in 2008 to clinch a playoff berth this year, with 99 wins and a 22 game lead over the 2nd place Texas Rangers.

With the Angels doing this successful, does it not seem logical that they will win the World Series? Though they have the best record in all of baseball, they have a 3-6 record against the Rays, who also have a very good shot to win the pennant. The Angels also played in the weakest division in the American League talent-wise.

The case for the Boston Redsox
The reigning World Series Champions began the season as prime contenders as champions once again. The Sox expected Josh Beckett to lead the staff and have Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester used as solid 2/3 starters. The 2008 season turned out very different from that. Matsuzaka finished the season with 18 wins and a 2.80 ERA. Cancer survivor Jon Lester also proved to be valuable for Boston. The lefty went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, including 2 complete game shutouts. Compared to his 2007 season, Josh Beckett was mediocre. In 2007, Beckett was a prime Cy Young award contender, but he would not be in 2008. His 12-10 record seems pedestrian and his 4.03 ERA is also second-rate. Potential MVP candidate David Ortiz was out from late May to late July with a wrist injury. The Redsox needed Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and J.D. Drew to fill in. Pedroia and Youkilis filled in and thrived. Both of them are potential MVP candidates for the 2008 season. They hit .325 and .314 respectively and also did very well in clutch situations. While Ortiz was out, J.D. Drew prospered. At one point of Ortiz’s absence, Drew raised his batting average from .282 to .327. At the trade deadline, things started to change for Manny Ramirez and the Redsox. Ramirez’s lack of hustle, off-the-field antics, and disrespect towards the team led to him being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 3-team trade that gave the Redsox Jason Bay in return from the Pirates. Bay has since hustled and played very well, with a .300 batting average with the Redsox. With poor play of the Yankees and the American League Central on the stretch run, the Redsox became the American League Wild Card winners.

Redsox Nation’s main source of victory will be from their offense. Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowell, Ortiz, and Bay will all do a good job in the postseason, but the cause for concern is the bullpen. Is Jon Papelbon reliable enough to close down in a crucial situation? Can Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen do well in the bullpen? Can Mike Timlin find where he was in 2005? The Angels are 8-1 against the Redsox in 2008 and they have the better rotation and bullpen than Boston’s.

The case for the Philadelphia Phillies
On paper, this team looked like a team that would slug their way to the playoffs. Well, the Phillies had pitching too. They rank 6th in all of baseball in ERA (3.91). Closer Brad Lidge is a perfect 40/40 in saves and save opportunities. Starters Jamie Moyer and Cole Hamels had a combined 29-17 record with a combined ERA of 3.40. The Philly offense had its struggles, revolving around the 2007 National League MVP Jimmy Rollins. Rollins criticized Phillies’ fans earlier in the year, calling them “bandwagoners” and “front-runners” when he appeared on “Best Damn Sports Show Period”. 1st baseman Ryan Howard also went through rough patches in the season. As late as May 21st, Howard’s batting average was below the Mendoza line, at a putrid .195. Up until the beginning of July, Howard was sitting at .215 with 20 homeruns and 68 RBI. Howard didn’t get red hot until after the All-Star break, hitting 20 homeruns and 58 RBI since; 11 homeruns in the month of September. Teammate Chase Utley started the season on a rampage, hitting 18 homeruns through May. He has slowed down rapidly, only hitting 12 homers since.

Now that the Phillies will make the playoffs, where will they go? Their bullpen has been terrific and so has their offense. The cause for concern is their rotation. Can Hamels and Moyer go deep into games? Will the Phillies use Brad Lidge in a non-save situation for more than 1 inning? Can Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton have quality outings in the playoffs? They will face some quality teams in the playoffs like the Cubs, Brewers, and the Dodgers.

The case for the Chicago Cubs
The Cubs last won a World Series in 1908. They have not appeared in one since the 1940s. Why do Cubs fans think this is the year the drought ends? Well, the Cubs are 5th in baseball in team batting average, 8th in homeruns, and 2nd in runs scored. Rookie catcher Geovany Soto is 3rd on the team with 23 homeruns, behind Alfonso Soriano (29) and Derrek Lee (27). Soto had more of an impact than fellow rookie teammate Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome, the Asian outfielder hit a measly .257 with a mere 10 homeruns. Since the All-Star break, Fukudome has only hit .217 in 60 games played. The real story behind Chicago’s success is their pitching. Ryan Dempster surely came as a pleasant surprise. Dempster was 17-6 with an ERA under 3.00 in the regular season. Fireballer Carlos Zambrano also fared well. Though Zambrano only had 14 wins, he did throw a no-hitter against the Houston Astros at Milwaukee because of Hurricane Ike. The Big Z has battled inflammation in his shoulder at times this season.

Do the Cubs have a legitimate shot at the World Series? Yes they do. They have a strong enough offense with Soriano, Lee, Soto, and Aramis Ramirez. Their rotation also consists of Ted Lilly and the acquired Rich Harden, which makes the Cubs prime challengers for the World Series. Harden was 10-2 on the season with the Oakland Athletics and the Cubs (5-1 for each team) with an ERA of 2.07. Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, and Lilly make a fierce rotation for the playoffs.

The case for the Los Angeles Dodgers
Led by new manager Joe Torre, the Los Angeles Dodgers made the playoffs. They surpassed the miraculous Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers suffered an early setback by losing closer Takashi Saito for an extended period of time. They had to use Jonathan Broxton to replace Saito. The Dodgers’ rotation was led by 24 year-old Chad Billingsley, who was 16-10 with a 3.17 ERA. Billingsley also led the Dodgers with 199 strikeouts. Derek Lowe did a satisfactory job for LA with his 3.29 ERA in 33 starts. Rookie pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda had a combined 4.01 ERA in their 51 combined appearances. Late in the season, the Dodgers acquired Greg Maddux from the San Diego Padres. With LA, the 42 year old veteran has not had many things to smile about statistically. His appalling 5.71 ERA with the team is a warning sign. Hitting-wise, the Dodgers had somewhat a tough time. Outfielder Andruw Jones struggled immensely with a dreadful .158 batting average. Fellow teammates Matt Kemp and James Loney performed well. The two had a combined .292 batting average with 31 homeruns and 166 RBI. Kemp stole 35 bases too, 2nd on his own team to Juan Pierre (39). But at the trade deadline, the Dodgers realized they needed to add a power bat to the lineup. They made a blockbuster trade with the Redsox and the Pittsburgh Pirates by acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Redsox and trading away 2 young prospects to the Pirates. Ramirez has since been a display of excellence. In 52 games with the Dodgers, Ramirez is batting a high .396 with 17 homeruns and 53 RBI. With Boston, Ramirez played 100 games and hit 20 homeruns with 68 RBI. His presence sparked the Dodgers to overcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West.

But do the Dodgers have what it takes to win it all? Their postseason rotation is solid, especially with Billingsley. The difference maker will be the rest of the pitching. The Dodgers need Lowe, Maddux, and Kuroda/Kershaw to do well in order to make some noise. Their offense needs to carry the team, Manny Ramirez in particular. If the Dodgers face the Cubs in the NLDS, they desperately need Ramirez, Russell Martin, Loney, and Kemp to step up big time.

The case for the Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers came into the season with high hopes that they would reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. They began the season with second-year players Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo looking to have even better seasons. Gallardo suffered 2 injuries early on: a torn meniscus that sidelined him for nearly a month (late March to late April) and a torn ACL which put him out from early May to very late September. The Brewers would suffice with pitchers Manny Parra (10-8) and Dave Bush. In early July, the Brewers made a trade that sent them in “win-now” mentality by trading 4 players (including top prospect Matt LaPorta) to the Cleveland Indians for reigning American League Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia. Sabathia’s presence would be enormous. In 17 starts with the Brewers, Sabathia pitched 130.2 out of 153 possible innings with an 11-2 record. Sabathia also pitched 7 complete games and 3 shutouts, one of which a controversial 1-hitter. Ryan Braun hit 34 homeruns and 96 RBI in his rookie season, and his 2nd season with Milwaukee was similar. He hit 37 homeruns with 106 RBI. Teammate Prince Fielder hit 34 homeruns with 102 RBI. Mike Cameron, JJ Hardy, and Corey Hart were all fine hitters for the Brew Crew. They hit a combined 69 homeruns and 235 RBI. Late in the season, the Brewers fired their manager Ned Yost and promoted Dale Sveum to interim manager. The Brewers’ push to the playoffs came to the last game of the regular season, tied with the New York Mets for 1st in the wild card. The Brewers needed a win and a Mets’ loss to make the playoffs. To help secure a spot, they had CC Sabathia pitch on 3-days rest. Sabathia could not have done any better. He pitched a complete game and allowed only 1 run to lock up their playoff status.

Can the Brew Crew make a significant run in the playoffs? They need Sabathia and Sheets to step up big time with their shaky bullpen. Eric Gagne had a 5.44 ERA and closer Salomon Torres had a 3.49 ERA, very high for a closer. If the Milwaukee offense can slug and their pitching can hold up, expect Milwaukee to be serious World Series contenders.

My Predictions:
ALDS: Rays over Whitesox (4 games) and Angels over Redsox (5 games)
NLDS: Cubs over Dodgers (4 games) and Brewers over Phillies (5 games)

ALCS: Rays over Angels (6 games)
NLCS: Cubs over Brewers (7 games)

World Series: Rays over Cubs (6 games)

Having the Tampa Bay Rays as World Series champions sounded absolutely preposterous at the beginning of the season, but the Rays proved they can contend for the playoffs and for the World Series. They have a bright future with their plethora of minor league talent. They can be a threat to be in the playoffs for years to come.