Super Bowl XLIII Preview

Well, we are finally here; Super Bowl XLIII. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals will duel it out on the field to see who will bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy.

It will be a great game to watch. The Steelers have an elite defense and a decent offense; conversely, the Cardinals have an elite offense but a decent defense.

Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald have hooked up on key occasions in the playoffs, one reason why the Cards have been playing so well. Fitzgerald will keep the Pittsburgh defense on their toes with his speed and agility. Fitzgerald's hands are superb and his jumping ability may be overwhelming to the Steelers.

Another key to the game is Kurt Warner's ability to handle the pressure the Steel Curtain will throw at him. Warner has faced some tough defenses that like to blitz, but none like that of the Steelers. If the offensive line can fend off the Steeler defense, that will give Warner more time to make accurate throws. If the offensive line cannot hold the Steelers, than Warner will be hurried to throw the ball and may make errant passes.

If the Cardinals want to win this game, they need to utilize trick plays like they have been doing all postseason. The flea-flicker in the wild card round caught the Falcons off guard and resulted in a touchdown. The play in the NFC championship game also left the Eagles baffled as to what happened.

The Arizona defense also needs to shine in order to win. They forced twelve turnovers in the postseason and that trend needs to continue. Antrel Rolle and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are two defensive backs who need to stay with the wide receivers they cover (most likely Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes).

As for the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger needs to make accurate throws. The Arizona secondary flourished in the playoffs and if Roethlisberger makes poor decisions, the secondary will take advantage.

Big Ben also has to avoid aggravating his rib and back injuries. Those have affected his passing game and if aggravated, then his skill may be diminished.

Hines Ward will be one of the X-Factors in the Super Bowl. Ward has not been 100% healthy in months and recently suffered a leg injury. He needs to run his routes and catch passes thrown to him. One strategy Pittsburgh could use is just having him on the field as a threat, not as a "receiver" on most plays.

Ward's fellow receiver, Santonio Holmes, will be another key player. Not only does Holmes have the ability to catch the deep ball as a wide receiver, but his speed and agility make him a threat to return kicks and punts for touchdowns.

Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and Ryan Clark are three of the Steelers' defenders who will hit the Cardinals hard and will have an enormous impact on the game. The Cardinals have not faced a defense like Pittsburgh; they have not faced a team that hits as hard as they do.

With all that said, the Steelers will be the new champions of the NFL. Defense wins championships and their defense is too strong. I believe the Cardinals will keep it close throughout, but in the end the Steelers will be crowned champions.

Prediction:
Steelers over Cardinals, 23-17
*Ben Roethlisberger named Super Bowl MVP*

Sabermetrics

Bill James, of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), is known as the founder of sabermetrics. James defined sabermetrics as “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.” In laymen’s terms, sabermetrics are a more complicated version of statistics that have more meaning.

But do sabermetrics really have more significance than regular statistics?

Let’s start off with double plays. The amount of double plays a batter has is very deceiving. Double-play opportunities (DP_OPPS) actually reveal more than just double plays themselves. These opportunities include at-bats with runner(s) on first, first and second, first and third, or first, second, and third. Double Play Percentage (DP %) is the sabremetric statistic that tells the amount of double play opportunities that were converted into double plays.

Let’s compare Padres’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and Royals’ designated hitter Billy Butler. Gonzalez grounded into 28 double plays in 2008 while Butler hit into 24. The typical person would say Gonzalez hit into double plays more often, but that person would be wrong. Gonzalez hit into double plays 16.3% of the time. Butler, on the other hand, hit into double plays 25.3% of the time.

Clearly, sabermetric statistics are an advantage over regular statistics, but how useful are sabermetrics when used on defense?

Errors and fielding percentage are pure black and white; they do not tell the whole side of one’s fielding ability. That is where sabermetrics step in.

Zone rating (ZR) is a little bit complicated. ZR divides the baseball field into “zones” (where balls are hit in play). The rating is the percentage of balls in play that a player fielded. This is a way of determining a player’s range on the field, but there is another way that involves zone rating.

Ultimate zone rating (UZR) is a statistic that compares one fielder to the league-average fielder at the position. The comparison is by how many runs a player prevented compared to that of a league-average player.

One of the best statistical ways to determine a fielder’s range by his fielding attempts is using range factor (RF). Adrian Gonzalez, 2008 gold glove winner, and Cardinals’ Albert Pujols will be evaluated for this. The first basemen had identical fielding percentages (.996), but Pujols’ range factor was listed at 10.61, leading all first basemen. Gonzalez’s RF was 9.12, fifteenth in baseball in 2008. By that statistic, it is a mystery why Gonzalez won the gold glove award.

Fielding runs above average (FRAA) and fielding runs above replacement (FRAR) both determine the number of runs a fielder has not permitted. FRAA compares one fielder to an average fielder whereas FRAR compares one fielder to a replacement player.

Sabermetrics can help determine a hitter’s true power numbers. The normal statistic is slugging percentage (SLG) and the sabermetic statistic is isolated power (ISO). The difference between SLG and ISO is ISO is made up by only extra-base hits (XBH) whereas SLG includes singles.

This time, Braves’ third baseman Chipper Jones and Phillies’ first baseman Ryan Howard will be evaluated. Chipper Jones was ranked fifth in baseball in SLG (.574) and Howard ranked seventeenth (.543). ISO ranks them much differently. Howard’s ISO was tied for fifth in baseball in 2008 (.292), a very high number for ISO. Chipper Jones was not ranked in the top 25, or the top 50 for that matter. Jones was tied for 74th in baseball in ISO (.210). Jones benefitted from a lot of singles. In contrast, Howard hit more homeruns (48) than Jones had XBH (47). Howard hit 78 XBH over the course of the season.

Runs batted in (RBI) are considered one of the most overrated statistics in sports. Others batted in (OBI) is very similar to RBI, except it does not include the batter driving himself in by a homerun. OBI is the sabermetric stat while RBI is the everyday stat.

Ryan Howard will be the test subject again, but this time he will go up against Twins’ first baseman Justin Morneau. Howard’s RBI total was 146 in 2008 and Morneau’s was 129. Their OBI total was closer. Howard totaled 98 OBI, but Morneau totaled 106. 67.1% of Howard’s RBI total was by OBI, meaning he drove himself in 32.9% of the time. Morneau drove himself in 17.8% of the time. In other words, 82.2% of Morneau’s RBI total was via OBI.

There is batting average (BA or AVG) and there is batting average on balls in play (BABIP). BABIP helps determine the amount of luck a pitcher has by his defense. For example, Orioles’ outfielder Nick Markakis suffered from bad luck in the 2008 season. Markakis’ batting average was .306, above average. However, his BABIP would have been .350, a significant difference.

An offensive stat to measure a player’s offensive value per out is called equivalent average (EqA). EqA is averaged out by the difficulty of the league, the park, the opposing pitching, hitting, and base running. EqA results are expressed using the “Stars and Scrubs Chart.” The chart labels each player by a category by their EqA. A player with an EqA less than .230 would be considered a scrub, between .250 and .280 a regular, between .280 and .300 a star, and anything above .300 a superstar. Granted, the chart does have flaws, but it gives a general idea of how the average hitter performed. Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia would be ranked a star (.298 EqA) whereas teammates JD Drew and Kevin Youkilis would both be ranked superstars (.314 and .313 respectively).

Now, let’s do some pitching. Earned run average (ERA) is also a deceiving statistic. Thankfully, sabermetrics have multiple versions of ERA to help measure a pitcher’s skill.

Rays’ pitcher Matt Garza pitched a 3.70 ERA in the 2008 season. Now, that would be considered pretty good, but sabermetrics proves otherwise. Garza’s NRA (normalized runs allowed; runs allowed compared to the league-average pitcher) was listed at 4.00 (average is considered 4.50). Garza’s DERA (defense-adjusted ERA; defense-independent of NRA) was 4.38. Another statistic that does not favor Garza is his fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Garza’s FIP was approximately 4.17.

Diamondbacks’ pitcher Brandon Webb will be the next ERA example. Webb’s ERA in 2008 was 3.30. His QERA (Quik-ERA; ERA based on a pitcher’s groundball rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate) was 3.47. Not bad, but a little bit worse than his regular ERA. Brandon Webb’s component ERA (ERC or CERA) was lower than his regular ERA suggests. Webb’s ERC was 3.04, meaning he performed better than his ERA suggests.

But there are two other stats that are involved with sabermetrics that truly judge a player’s importance: Wins above replacement player (WARP) and value over replacement player (VORP).

WARP values a player’s importance to his team when compared to a replacement player by the amount of wins he is worth to his team. WARP’s values are combined with BRAR (batting runs over replacement), PRAR (pitching runs over replacement; for pitchers), and FRAR (fielding runs over replacement).

But VORP is the real stat that values a player’s individual performance. VORP usefulness is comparing a player’s runs contributed to a replacement player if they both played the same position and had the same amount of plate appearances.

Albert Pujols led all of baseball in VORP in 2008 with a value of 98.6. How good is that? The player with the second-highest VORP, Hanley Ramirez, had a VORP of 78.6.

Speaking of Hanley Ramirez, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting in 2008. Playing on a small market team that was not in playoff contention did not help his chances at becoming MVP, but he should have been ranked much, much higher. Ramirez was 2nd in baseball in VORP. The real second-place finisher in the MVP race, Ryan Howard, finished 46th in VORP in 2008 (36.4). The voters only looked at Howard’s HR and RBI totals to say that he was MVP-worthy. Milwaukee Brewers’ third baseman, Ryan Braun, finished 3rd in the MVP voting. Braun’s candidacy was that he led the Brewers to the playoffs and that his 37 homeruns were impressive. However, Braun’s VORP was ranked 29th in baseball (15th in the NL).

Regular, everyday statistics are very deceiving. Sabermetrics help define a player’s true value and are an enhanced way of determining talent.

Formulas:
DP% (Double Play Percentage): DP/DP_OPPS
RF (Range Factor): (9*(PO + A))/Innings in field)
SLG (Slugging Percentage): TB/AB
ISO (Isolated Power): (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB
OBI (Others Batted In): RBI-HR
AVG (Batting Average): H/AB
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): (H-HR)/ (AB-HR-K+SF)
EqA (Equivalent Average): (H+TB+ (1.5*(BB+HBP)) +SB)/ (AB+BB+HBP+CS+ (SB/3))
ERA (Earned Run Average): (ER*9)/IP
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): ((HR*13+ (BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP) +3.2
ERC (Component ERA): (((H+BB+HBP)*(.89*(1.255*(H-HR) +4*HR) +.56*(BB+HBP-IBB)))/ (BFP*IP))*9-.56

Cinderella Stories

Everyone loves Cinderella stories. Each one is miraculous, phenomenal, and wondrous. The Arizona Cardinals are the latest Cinderella story. However, recent Cinderella stories have not ended on a positive note.

The Tampa Bay Rays, last place in 2007, went to the World Series in 2008. An astonishing occurrence that no one saw coming. But the Rays could not finish it off; they lost the World Series to the Philadelphia Phillies in 5 games.

The Davidson Wildcats, led by Stephen Curry, reached the Elite 8 in the 2008 NCAA Basketball tournament. 10th seeded Davidson emerged past Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin to advance, but they could not move on to the Final 4. The Kansas Jayhawks defeated the Cinderella team by 2 points and moved on to win the National Title.

The Colorado Rockies won 14 of their final 15 regular season games in 2007, including a tiebreaker to advance to the playoffs. The Rockies swept the Phillies and Diamondbacks, stretching their streak to 21 out of 22. The Rockies could not complete the dream as they were swept in the World Series by the Boston Red Sox.

The George Mason Patriots, an 11th seed, made it to the Final 4 in the 2006 NCAA tournament. George Mason beat Michigan State, North Carolina, Wichita State, and Connecticut to advance, only to lose to the Florida Gators in the semifinals.

Those 4 examples do not help any Cinderella team. But, those 4 stories happened in baseball and college basketball only. There is a sport that is “immune” to Cinderella failure. That sport…is football.

The 1968 Jets, the 1999 Rams, the 2001 Patriots, and the 2007 Giants were all Cinderella teams. They all overcame adversity to win the Super Bowl.

No one gave the Jets much of a chance as they were 19-point underdogs entering Super Bowl III. But Joe Namath’s guarantee created much buzz about the game. Jim Turner’s 3 field goals and Matt Snell’s touchdown run ended the Cinderella story with the Jets emerging victorious, 16-7.

The St. Louis Rams came into the regular season with lost hope; they lost starting quarterback Trent Green in a preseason game. Kurt Warner took his job and performed remarkably. He and the Rams went 13-3 in the regular season and made it to the Super Bowl. The Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV over the Titans 23-16 and surprised the world.

After Mo Lewis knocked out Drew Bledsoe in a week 2 game, Tom Brady stepped in for the New England Patriots. Brady shocked the globe and led the Patriots to an 11-5 record and an appearance at Super Bowl XXXVI. Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal put the Pats on top 20-17.

The New York Giants, a #5 seed in the playoffs, struggled at the end of the regular season, but still made the playoffs. After being underdogs to the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers, the Giants stunned everyone and made it to the Super Bowl. When they faced the undefeated Patriots, the media thought the Giants stood no shot. But, Eli Manning and the Giants left Bill Belichick’s Patriots dumbfounded as they upset the previously 18-0 Pats 17-14.

Nowadays, Cinderella stories in sports are not uncommon. For the Arizona Cardinals, their Cinderella story may work in their favor.

Preliminary Rosters for WBC Announced

The 2nd World Baseball Classic will run from March 5th until March 23rd. In 2006, Japan won the first ever WBC against Cuba.

The provisional rosters were announced today. The official rosters will be cut to 25-men and will be announced in late February. Here are some of the notable players on each team.

United States: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, Scot Shields, Joe Nathan, JJ Putz, Brian McCann, Derek Jeter, David Wright, Chipper Jones, Jimmy Rollins, Kevin Youkilis, Evan Longoria, Derrek Lee, Carlos Quentin, Vernon Wells, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun

Dominican Republic: Pedro Martinez, Edinson Volquez, Fausto Carmona, Ervin Santana, Johnny Cueto, Francisco Liriano, Damaso Marte, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, Jose Reyes, Robinson Cano, Carlos Pena, Miguel Tejada, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Vladimir Guerrero

Panama: Manny Corpas, Carlos Lee

Venezuela: Johan Santana, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Zambrano, Francisco Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Magglio Ordoñez

Cuba: Yadiel Pedroso, Yulieski Gourriel, Alexei Ramirez, Osmany Urrutia, Yoandy Garlobo

Japan: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish, Hideki Okajima, Kenji Johjima, Kosuke Fukudome, Ichiro

Canada: Rich Harden, Jeff Francis, Eric Gagne, Russell Martin, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Jason Bay, Matt Stairs

México: Oliver Perez, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, Joakim Soria, Luis Ayala, Adrian Gonzalez, Jorge Cantu

Puerto Rico: Joel Piñeiro, Javier Vazquez, Pedro Feliciano, Geovany Soto, Pudge Rodriguez, Carlos Delgado, Mike Lowell, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran, Bernie Williams

Other notables:
Jair Jurrjens and Sidney Ponson for the Netherlands; Mike Napoli for Italy; Grant Balfour for Australia
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Venezuela's rotation is phenomenal. Johan, Felix, and Zambrano will dominate.

The Dominican roster is also stacked. Though these are only preliminary, a lineup with Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, and Albert Pujols may be one of the best lineups in today's game.

Though there are not many players listed on Cuba's national team, their roster is always filled with highly talented players. The same goes for Japan. Expect both teams to play very tough baseball and make a serious run at the title.

The US may not have the team with the most stars, but they are the most well-rounded team. They have a lot of depth in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup.

From a Yankee standpoint, Robinson Cano playing is a great thing for them. Cano usually starts his seasons off slow and in slumps. Getting him to play some serious baseball early on can only help him avoid a slow start.

Rex Ryan Named Jets' Head Coach

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Rex Ryan and the Jets have agreed on a contract offer. The contract is believed to be worth $11.5 million spread out over 4 years, close to what Steve Spagnuolo, another candidate for the Jets, received for his arrival in St. Louis.

It is reported that the Jets sent Ryan a formal offer nearly an hour after the Ravens lost to the Steelers in the AFC Championship game Sunday night.

Ryan's introduction news conference is scheduled for Wednesday.

I really like this move for the Jets. Ryan will help the Jets' defense in so many ways. He can bring in personnel to improve on the passing defense and still maintain a solid run defense.

Ryan can also help players like Vernon Gholston make an impact. Gholston's effect was minimal over the course of the season. He recorded just 5 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles in his rookie season.

With Rex Ryan at the helm, the Jets can even try a shift from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3. That can help Gholston as he was a defensive end at Ohio State (4-3 defense), but the Jets may not change their defense. Their set of linebackers may be too good in order to change their defense. Bryan Thomas, Calvin Pace, and Gholston are 3 very good outside linebackers while Eric Barton, David Harris, and David Bowens are the inside linebackers.

Whatever he does, he will certainly be an improvement over Eric Mangini. Ryan can motivate a team and his coaching decisions are also a step up from Mangini's.

Rex Ryan, welcome to the Jets.

The Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl!

For the first time in 61 years, the Arizona Cardinals are going to the NFL Championship game.

That’s right; the team that won the weakest division in the NFL is making it to the Super Bowl. The team that allowed 103 points to the Jets and Patriots combined is making it to the Super Bowl. The team with no 600-yard rusher is going to the Super Bowl. The team that outscored opponents by 3 points (429-426) in the regular season is going to the Super Bowl.

No one thought they would make it to the postseason, let alone the Super Bowl. 16 ESPN analysts recorded their preseason NFL predictions in August of 2008. Only 2 of them (Len Pasquarelli and Matt Williamson) chose Arizona to win the division. The rest chose the Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West division.

The Cardinals entered the playoffs on a slide, losing 4 of their final 6 games. In those games, they were outscored 198-138. The playoffs were a whole new story for Ken Whisenhunt’s team.

Kurt Warner led the Cardinals past the Atlanta Falcons at home in the NFC wild card round. Warner threw for 271 yards with 2 touchdowns in the 30-24 victory. Larry Fitzgerald caught one of Warner’s two touchdowns and also had 101 receiving yards.

Rookie cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, brother of Chargers’ cornerback Antonio Cromartie, led the Cards with 10 tackles in the win. Rodgers-Cromartie also intercepted one of Matt Ryan’s passes in the game.

In the divisional round, the Cardinals faced a much tougher situation: on the road, facing the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals were 0-5 on the east coast during the regular season, but again, the playoffs change everything.

Larry Fitzgerald caught 166 of Kurt Warner’s 220 passing yards and another touchdown. Running backs Tim Hightower and Edgerrin James combined for 133 rushing yards and one touchdown.

But the real story was the Cardinal defense. Arizona’s defensive line hurried Jake Delhomme and forced him to make inaccurate throws. Five of his mistakes ended up as interceptions by the Cardinals. Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted his second pass of the playoffs in the game. Antrel Rolle also picked off one of Delhomme’s passes en route to a 33-13 victory over Carolina.

At home, the Cardinals faced the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat them Thanksgiving night 48-28. The Eagles also defeated the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Giants just to make it to the playoffs and to make it to the NFC Championship game.

Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner hooked up 9 times. Fitzgerald caught 152 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Kurt Warner shined with his other teammates too.

With Arizona losing 25-24 in the 4th quarter, the ball was in Kurt Warner’s hands and he needed to make plays. A crucial 4th and 2 play forced the Cardinals to decide on an important play. Warner handed the ball off to running back Tim Hightower and ran to the outside for a 1st down, saving the Cardinals’ season.

With 2:59 to go in the 4th quarter, Kurt Warner threw it to Hightower 8 yards into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown. Warner and the Cards won the game 33-25 and are going to Super Bowl XLIII, the Cardinals’ first in team history.

Larry Fitzgerald made history in the playoffs, becoming the first player to record 3-100 receiving yard games in the same postseason. Fitzgerald was also the first player to score 3 touchdowns in the first half of an NFL conference championship game.

The Arizona Cardinals’ 61-year championship drought was the second-longest in sports history for teams in North America. Only the Chicago Cubs’ World Series drought that is over a century long stands now.

Former Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner improved to 3-0 in conference championship games. Warner is looking to go 2-1 in his Super Bowl appearances.

The Cardinals will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII on February 1 in Tampa, Florida.

Take 3

Week 4: Steelers win 23-20 in overtime. Week 15: Steelers win 13-9 on a crucial touchdown call on 3rd and goal with 50 seconds to go. What does the AFC Championship game bring?

The Baltimore Ravens will enter the AFC Championship game on a 4-game win streak, beating the Cowboys, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Titans along the way. The Pittsburgh Steelers come in winning 7 of their last 8.

The Steelers are 2-0 against the Ravens this season, none by margins greater than 4. This game will be filled with intensity and 2 teams fighting hard for a Super Bowl berth, but who wins it?

For the Ravens, in their 4 game winning streak, they have outscored their opponents 100-50. That’s right, their defense allowed only 50 points total to the Cowboys, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Titans.

Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco isn’t playing like a rookie. Flacco has thrown for 742 yards in the past 4 games, not throwing an interception in any one of them.

The Ravens are a 7-3 team on the road, which is more than adequate, but the Steelers are 7-2 at home. Pittsburgh was the only team to win at home in the divisional round.

The Steelers’ defense has been excellent in their past 8 games, with a +8 turnover differential. If you take away the loss against Tennessee, their turnover differential goes to +12, an unheard of amount in a 7-game span.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 1800 yards in the past 8 games too and his leadership is what gave the Steelers the extra boost down the stretch to make it this far.

This game will be a game of inches, either team can win. The Steelers are already 2-0 against the Ravens this season and need to go 3-0 to advance to the Super Bowl. I believe they will get that third victory, but it will be close. Both offenses will be facing intimidating defenses, so it comes down to whose defense can force more turnovers.

Prediction:
Steelers over Ravens, 16-10.

Battle of the Birds

Who thought the Arizona Cardinals would beat the Atlanta Falcons in the wild card round? Who thought they would beat the Carolina Panthers in the divisional round? Who thought the Philadelphia Eagles would beat the New York Giants in the divisional round? Well, it wasn’t me.

The NFC playoff picture is now a “battle of the birds.” The Eagles against the Cardinals. Who has this game?

In week 13, the Eagles bashed the Cardinals in a 48-20 victory that would propel them to the playoffs. The Cardinals, playing in the weak NFC West division, found that game to have little impact on their season, but it was an embarrassing loss. Arizona allowed over 400 total yards, turned the ball over 4 times, and barely had more than 20 minutes of possession.

Both teams enter the NFC championship game on 3-game winning streaks. The Eagles have beaten Dallas, Minnesota, and now the Giants. The Cardinals defeated Seattle, Atlanta, and Carolina on their winning streak.

For the Cardinals sake, they are playing at home. Arizona is 7-2 at home (including the playoffs). The Eagles are barely a .500 team on the road, going 5-4-1 (including the playoffs) when they travel.

Also for Arizona, their defense has shined in the playoffs. They forced 3 turnovers against Atlanta and 6 against Carolina. 7 of the 9 turnovers have been interceptions. Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie and Ralph Brown both have 2 INT’s while Antrel Rolle, Gerald Hayes, and Roderick Hood each have 1.

The Arizona offense has only turned the ball over twice in the playoffs, once each game. The turnover differential is one success the Cardinals have.

The Cardinals rely on their offense having the ball. When they control the ball longer than their opponent, they are a 9-2 team. When they control the ball less than their opponent, they are 2-5.

However, the Eagles do not find trips to the west coast to be intimidating. Philly has gone 2-0 in their trips out west this season.

The Eagles’ defense has been outstanding over the past 3 weeks. Their D has forced 10 turnovers in their past 3 wins, 6 of which are fumbles. Their dazzling defense has 3 touchdowns too!

Donovan McNabb’s game is proficient in the playoffs. He threw for 517 yards with 2 touchdowns, but his 3 interceptions are forgettable. McNabb has also rushed for a touchdown.

Who has this game? I am going to say the Eagles, but it will be close. The Cardinals are a much better team at home than they are on the road and their secondary has shined, but that is what will keep them close.

The Eagles’ overall defense is much stronger than that of the Cardinals. They can pressure the quarterback and pick the ball off. The Eagles beat the Cardinals earlier and trounced all over them earlier. I expect this game to be much closer.

Prediction:
Eagles over Cardinals, 23-20.

I will have a preview of the Ravens/Steelers playoff game tomorrow.

Tradeable?

The Yankees have supposedly been shopping around outfielders Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. Some rumors include one of them being traded to the Reds for a pitcher, such as Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang. Why?

Nady and Swisher were both acquired via trade. Nady was traded in July of 2008 and Swisher only a few months ago. Nady was traded along with Damaso Marte for outfielder Jose Tabata (once a top prospect) and pitchers Dan McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Karstens. Ohlendorf and Karstens have both pitched in the majors before the trades and had average performance. Tabata was a top prospect in the Yankees' organization for years before a down-season and troubles off the field. McCutchen pitched very well in the minors for the Yankees and was worth a call-up before traded.

Swisher was traded with a low-tier prospect for infielder Wilson Betemit and pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. Betemit could be a regular player, but has a low batting average and strikes out often. Marquez was once regarded as a contender for a rotation spot a few years ago, but Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy earned it before him.

The Yankees essentially traded 7 players for the outfielders. They shouldn't give up on them, especially when Nady has only played 2 months for the Yankees and Swisher hasn't even played once.

Xavier Nady will be a free agent at the end of the year and is a Scott Boras client. The Yankees may consider resigning him at season's end, but no one knows for sure. Nady is in a contract year and studies show players in contract years peform better than they do in average years.

Swisher is locked up until 2011 and has a club option for 2012. Swisher is versatile and can play 1B (now played by Mark Teixeira) and all outfield positions. He is due $5.3 million in 2009, $6.75 million in 2010, and $9 million in 2011.

The Yankee outfield is (at the moment): Johnny Damon (LF), Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner (CF), Xavier Nady (RF) and has Swisher riding the bench. Hideki Matsui will be the DH for the Yankees.

The Yankees should have Brett Gardner in AAA to start the season and Melky Cabrera on the bench. They should also have Damon play CF and Swisher play LF, or Damon play LF and Swisher play CF. That way Gardner can get more playing time and become more prepared for the majors. Gardner hit .228 in 42 games with the Yankees and had an OPS under .600. Melky Cabrera slumped in 2008 and he could be a late-inning, defensive replacement if needed.

Having Swisher and Nady in the same lineup would be a great idea and would only make the Yankees' lineup more fearful.

As of now, the Yankees' lineup is:
1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Mark Teixeira (1B)
4. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
5. Xavier Nady (RF)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Jorge Posada (C)
8. Nick Swisher (CF)
9. Robinson Cano (2B)

Rex Ryan is the Man for the Job

First, I would like to take the time to say goodbye to Eric Mangini, who ended his Jet tenure with a 23-26 record (including the postseason). “Mangenius” is not the name you deserved. Your coaching did not motivate the team when it mattered most and it cost the Jets some games too.

In the week 16 game against the Seattle Seahawks, you sent kicker Jay Feely out for a 45 yard attempt. It was good, but a delay of game penalty negated it. After the call, you decided to punt the ball away. Why? Before that game, Feely was 6/7 in field goal attempts over 40 yards. His field goal would have easily been good from 50, and possibly 55 yards away.

Also, when the team was only down by a touchdown, a crucial 4th and 4 call decided the fate of the game. There were three timeouts left and you decided to go for it. Why? The ball was placed deep inside Jet territory and failure to convert would have meant a clear Seattle victory. Trust your defense to make a stop!

Who is out there to replace Mangini? There is Steve Spagnuolo, Mike Shanahan, and Rex Ryan.

Personally, I wanted Bill Cowher to replace Mangini. Cowher has a great coaching background with the Steelers, including a Super Bowl win against the Seahawks. Cowher’s career winning percentage is .623 in the regular season and .574 in the postseason (12-9 record). The Jets need someone to motivate them and that is Bill Cowher. Sadly, he declined to interview and will continue broadcasting with CBS in 2009.

There is nothing wrong with Steve Spagnuolo though. Spagnuolo is a great defensive coordinator and has been coaching defenses since 1984, back when he was the defensive line coach on Lafayette College. Spagnuolo runs a 4-3 defense with the Giants and that is certainly what the Jets need, but it may be unlikely he will accept a job with the Jets. He has a nice job where he is and the Giants may make a bigger, better offer to keep Spagnuolo.

Mike Shanahan is different. He has been the head coach of the Denver Broncos for 15 years with a .616 winning percentage. Shanahan won two Super Bowl titles in his tenure with the Broncos and made it to the postseason 7 times. Though his career is impressive, he is not a head coach that focuses on defense. Plus, with the Broncos' recent collapse, who knows if the same thing will happen again with the Jets.

Rex Ryan should be the next head coach of the Jets. Ryan has been working with the Ravens’ outstanding defense since 1999 and is currently their defensive coordinator AND assistant head coach. Ryan would easily be an improvement over Mangini and he would establish the 4-3 defense. Ryan worked with the Ravens’ secondary and succeeded with it. If the Jets could improve on their secondary they would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender for 2009.

Rex Ryan brings change towards the Jets. He can fix the team's defense and help the pass defense. Changing the defense to a 4-3 would give Vernon Gholston, last year's first round pick, more of an impact and help the pass rush. Plus it solves their problem at the right defensive end. Rex Ryan should be the next head coach of the New York Jets.

New York 2009 Goals

2008 is over, 2009 is here. In 2008, we saw the Yankees miss the playoffs, the Mets choke down the stretch, the Giants win the Super Bowl and clinch home-field advantage in the 2009 playoffs, and the Jets choke down the stretch. What are some reasonable expecations and goals for these teams to accomplish for the new year?

New York Yankees
Expectation: Make the postseason. After not making it last year, they desperately need to. They signed three top free agents over the off season (so far). With the rotation they have (CC Sabathia/Chien-Ming Wang/A.J. Burnett/Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes), their pitching staff should be much improved. Plus with a healthy lineup that includes two power hitters in their prime (Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira), there is no excuse for not making the playoffs.
Goals: Score over 850 runs and accumulate at least 930 innings from their starting rotation. In 2007, the Yankee offense scored over 968 runs. In 2008, the offense scored 789 runs. Hitting coach Kevin Long needs to get back to his 2007 form and teach the players how to hit. As for their pitching staff, Peter Abraham of LoHud Blogs found an interesting statistic. The playoff teams from 2008 had enormous innings pitched by their rotation. The Rays (973.1), Red Sox (966.2), White Sox (998.1) and Angels (1,012) all had great support. The Yankees only had a 898.1 innings pitched by their rotation. 40 innings by the rotation is a lot, they need all the help they can.

New York Mets
Expectations: Make the playoffs. The Mets choked down the stretch the past two years. 2007 was just a dreadful collapse and 2008 was just as bad. They need to prove they can finish a season without falling in the past month. The Mets need to make the playoffs so they can erase the harsh memories from 2007 and 2008.
Goals: A better bullpen for sure. The Mets' save percentage was 60%, tied for 4th worst in the National League and tied for 9th worst in baseball. They blew 29 saves, 3rd worst in baseball. They also allowed 58 homeruns, tied for 8th worst in baseball. And as for earned run average, the Mets' bullpen ranked 23rd (4.27). They desperately need bullpen help, desperately. They already got help from acquiring Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz and losing Scott Schoeneweis, Aaron Heilman, and Joe Smith.

New York Jets
Expectations: Make the playoffs. The Jets collapsed over their final 5 games, going 1-4. They were outcoached and outplayed over those games. No matter who the coach is, no matter who the quarterback is, they need to make the playoffs. They already faced a lot of criticism by the media for their offseason acquisitions of Alan Faneca, Damien Woody, Kris Jenkins, and Calvin Pace. Brett Favre added on to that. If the Jets want to erase 2008, they need to make the playoffs in 2009.
Goals: Find a new QB and improve on pass defense. Brett Favre's TD/INT ratio was 22/22, not what anyone expected. He is old, washed up, and needs to retire. The Jets need QB help and Favre is not the solution. Whether they try to sign Matt Cassel, Tom Brady's replacement, or look in the draft for a QB, they need help. The Jets' pass defense was appalling to say the least. They allowed 234.5 passing yards per game, 4th worst in the NFL. 23 passing touchdowns were allowed, tied for 8th worst in the NFL. The Jets ranked 26th in opponent's completion percentage. They need help at SS and CB. Abram Elam is not doing the job, neither is Eric Smith at safety. Darrelle Revis is a pro-bowler but he needs another cornerback to complement him.

New York Giants
Expectations: For the upcoming playoffs, make it to the NFC Championship game. The Giants' surprise run to win last year's Super Bowl was astounding. They already have home-field advantage for this year's postseason and not making it back to the title game will be a disappointment. As for next season, it is too early to be thinking of that. They need to focus on this season first.
Goals: Win the Super Bowl. No one thought they would win the Super Bowl last year. No one thought the Giants would come remotely close to winning this year's Super Bowl after losing defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. No one thought they would stand strong after the Plaxico Burress shooting. The trend here is shunning the nonbelievers and proving the doubters wrong. Their goal is to win the Super Bowl again.