Friday, January 16, 2009

Take 3

Week 4: Steelers win 23-20 in overtime. Week 15: Steelers win 13-9 on a crucial touchdown call on 3rd and goal with 50 seconds to go. What does the AFC Championship game bring?

The Baltimore Ravens will enter the AFC Championship game on a 4-game win streak, beating the Cowboys, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Titans along the way. The Pittsburgh Steelers come in winning 7 of their last 8.

The Steelers are 2-0 against the Ravens this season, none by margins greater than 4. This game will be filled with intensity and 2 teams fighting hard for a Super Bowl berth, but who wins it?

For the Ravens, in their 4 game winning streak, they have outscored their opponents 100-50. That’s right, their defense allowed only 50 points total to the Cowboys, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Titans.

Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco isn’t playing like a rookie. Flacco has thrown for 742 yards in the past 4 games, not throwing an interception in any one of them.

The Ravens are a 7-3 team on the road, which is more than adequate, but the Steelers are 7-2 at home. Pittsburgh was the only team to win at home in the divisional round.

The Steelers’ defense has been excellent in their past 8 games, with a +8 turnover differential. If you take away the loss against Tennessee, their turnover differential goes to +12, an unheard of amount in a 7-game span.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 1800 yards in the past 8 games too and his leadership is what gave the Steelers the extra boost down the stretch to make it this far.

This game will be a game of inches, either team can win. The Steelers are already 2-0 against the Ravens this season and need to go 3-0 to advance to the Super Bowl. I believe they will get that third victory, but it will be close. Both offenses will be facing intimidating defenses, so it comes down to whose defense can force more turnovers.

Prediction:
Steelers over Ravens, 16-10.

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