Well, the season is over and the Phillies are World Series champions. There are only 2 things left to discuss about baseball: the offseason and the awards. Here are the awards I would give out.
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
2. Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
3. Carlos Quentin (CHW)
Alex Rodriguez led the American League in VORP (value over replacement player), MLV (marginal lineup value), and PMLV (positional marginal lineup value). Those three statistics are sabremetrics, which are a great way to value a player. Alex Rodriguez’s Yankees did not make the playoffs, which is a disadvantage from the voters. However, A-Rod’s power numbers (35 HR/103 RBI/.965 OPS) are better than those of Pedroia (17 HR/83 RBI/.869 OPS). Both Rodriguez and Quentin missed extended periods of time due to injury, but the reason Quentin falls short of the MVP title is because he was injured when his team needed him most: in September. Quentin led the league with 36 homeruns before he was out with an injury. Despite missing the final 26 games of the regular seasons, he was only one homerun shy of the American League lead (Miguel Cabrera, 37). The overall American League was weak in statistics. Pedroia, Quentin, and Kevin Youkilis may all deserve the MVP award, but it goes to A-Rod here.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL)
2. Hanley Ramirez (FLA)
3. Chipper Jones (ATL)
I don’t know how the top 3 National League MVP candidates are from non-playoff teams either, but this is how I predict it. Albert Pujols had the power, the batting average, and the clutch hitting to give him the MVP award. He led the NL in VORP, MLV, and PMLV just like Rodriguez. Pujols came in 2nd in the batting title to Chipper Jones. Pujols bat .357 while Jones hit .364. Of the 3 vying candidates, Pujols led them with 37 homeruns and 116 RBI. Hanley Ramirez and Chipper Jones will battle it out for 2nd place in the voting, but the winner of that race would go to Ramirez. He hit 33 homeruns and stole 35 bases with a batting average over .300. Though Jones won the batting title and sat around .400 for the first few months of the season, he only hit 22 homeruns with 75 RBI, coming from the #3 hole (Ramirez was primarily the leadoff batter for the Marlins). Regardless of Ramirez and Jones, Pujols is the clear-cut winner.
AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee (CLE)
2. Roy Halladay (TOR)
3. Mike Mussina (NYY)
Cliff Lee had an amazing turnaround season from 2007. Lee won 22 games and led the AL in ERA. He went deep into games many times over the course of the season. However, the case for Roy Halladay is not too far behind of Lee’s. Halladay won 20 games too and struck out more batters. Doc also pitched more complete games than Lee. On the pitcher’s VORP scale, Lee led the entire league with 75.0 points, 1.6 ahead of 2nd place Johan Santana (NYM; NL) and 3.5 ahead of Halladay. Lee edges out Halladay in what should be a close vote. 3rd place could go to anyone: Francisco Rodriguez and his 62 saves, Daisuke Matsuzaka and his low ERA, Jon Lester and his heart-warming story, but my vote would go to Mike Mussina of the Yankees. Mussina had arguably one of the best seasons of his long career, winning 20 games. Mussina had low expectations entering the season but excelled, posting an ERA of 3.37. Mussina had a lot of quality outings for the Yankees and deserves some recognition with it.
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum (SF)
2. Johan Santana (NYM)
3. Brandon Webb (AZ) and CC Sabathia (MIL)
Though Brandon Webb won 22 games in 2008, Johan Santana led the league in ERA, and CC Sabathia had a great second half with the Brewers, Lincecum is the winner. Lincecum had the most strikeouts in the NL. He was second in quality starts behind Johan and 8 of his quality starts did not factor into a victory. Between Lincecum and Webb, Lincecum won games with fewer run support, a lower WHIP, a lower opponent’s batting average, and a higher K/BB rate. Between Lincecum and Santana, Lincecum had a much lower HR/9 rate and a much higher K/9 rate. Between Lincecum and Sabathia, Lincecum’s BABIP (batting average on balls put into play) was much lower than Sabathia’s.
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria (TB)
2. Alexei Ramirez (CHW)
3. Joba Chamberlain (NYY) and Mike Aviles (KC)
Longoria definitely wins this race in a landslide. He led all AL rookies in homeruns and RBI and his impact on the Rays was tremendous. It seems obvious that Longoria wins this. However, the real competition is for the runner-ups. Ramirez flashed power numbers (21 homeruns and 77 RBI) and also played some great defense for the AL Central division winning Whitesox. He demonstrated clutch hitting by batting .380 with RISP, .471 with the bases loaded, and .316 in the late innings of close games. 3rd place is a tie between Yankees Joba Chamberlain and Royal Mike Aviles. Chamberlain gets all the media attention from the New York media whereas Aviles is more of an unknown. Joba Chamberlain led AL rookie pitchers in VORP (32.3) but also suffered shoulder troubles when he was being converted from a reliever to a starter. Aviles led all AL rookie position players in VORP (35.0) and PMLV (21.7). His batting average was .53 points higher than that of Longoria’s. Aviles hit .316 with RISP just like Ramirez too.
NL Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto (CIN)
2. Geovany Soto (CHC)
3. Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
Votto’s and Soto’s numbers are very similar. Votto hit 24 homeruns while Soto hit 23. Soto hit 86 RBI while Votto hit 84. Votto’s batting average was .012 points higher than Soto’s (.297 - .285) and his OPS was .006 points higher than Soto’s (.874 - .868). The main difference between Votto and Soto is Soto’s team, the Cubs, advanced to the postseason. Regardless of the team, Votto’s statistics are better and he would get the award. Jurrjens led all of rookie pitchers in VORP (33.0) and ERA (3.68). Jurrjens’ numbers could have been much better had he not fallen off track later on in the season. His ERA was 3.00 prior to the All-Star break but rose to 4.66 after the All-Star break.
That is it for the major awards. For the record, I would give Joe Maddon (TB) the AL Manager of the Year for the epic turnaround of the Rays in 2008 and Charlie Manuel (PHI) the NL Manager of the Year for giving the city of Philadelphia their first title in 25 years. However, Jerry Manuel, the interim manager of the New York Mets, should come in a close second for his impact towards the Mets’ season. The Mets fired Willie Randolph in the middle of the season with the team struggling, but Manuel stepped in and almost led the Mets to the playoffs, something nobody thought they would do early on in the season.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
2008 World Series Predictions
If I told you the World Series would be Rays/Phillies in Spring Training, you'd all laugh at me. Well, it happened and who will it be? Who will win it all? Here is some analysis:
Catcher:
Dioner Navarro (TB) vs Carlos Ruiz (PHI)
Navarro's postseason has not been great compared to his regular season. He is batting .268 with no homeruns and 5 RBI. Carlos Ruiz's postseason has not been great either, hitting .200 with only 1 RBI. Both have bad offensive numbers, but the edge here goes to Navarro because of the great game he calls. Navarro can manage pitchers very well and knows what pitch to call in key situations.
Edge: Navarro
First Base:
Carlos Pena (TB) vs Ryan Howard (PHI)
In the postseason, Pena is .333 with 3 homeruns, 8 RBI, and an OPS over 1.000. Pena also has 3 stolen bases, 2 more than he had in all of the regular season. Ryan Howard's postseason performance has been mediocre. A .258 batting average with no homeruns and a mere 3 RBI have not shown his full potential. His .733 OPS is over .150 points below his regular season average. Between their playoff performance, Pena has outmatched Howard by a landslide.
Edge: Pena
Second Base:
Akinori Iwamura (TB) vs Chase Utley (PHI)
Iwamura's postseason has been alright by his standards. A .277 batting average is close to what he put up in the regular season. He has 1 homerun, 4 RBI, and a .805 OPS in the playoffs. His SLG in the postseason is .067 points higher than in the regular season. Chase Utley has also struggled in the postseason with a .250 batting average, 1 homerun, 5 RBI, and an OPS of .838 (nearly .080 points below his regular season total). With their playoff performance, I'd call this a tie, but with their impact on their team, the edge goes to Utley.
Edge: Utley
Third Base:
Evan Longoria (TB) vs Pedro Feliz (PHI)
Longoria's postseason has been up and down. He began the playoffs with 2 homeruns in as many at-bats in the ALDS against the Whitesox. After game 1 (3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI), he fell in an 0-13 slump. In the ALCS against the Redsox, Longoria began struggling, but than emerged powerful, hitting 4 homeruns in consecutive games. His subtotal statistics were .262 with 6 homeruns and 11 RBI and a 1.102 OPS. Pedro Feliz has not had as good a postseason as Longoria. Feliz's batting average in the playoffs is below the Mendoza line, only 5 hits in 26 at-bats. He has no homeruns and only 2 RBI. Longoria is the better player.
Edge: Longoria
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett (TB) vs Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
Jason Bartlett's postseason is not all too well either with a .243 batting average and only 1 HR. Jimmy Rollins' statistics are almost identical to Bartlett's. He too has a .243 batting average but only has 2 homeruns. Bartlett and Rollins combined have 3 RBI, all via solo homeruns. Rollins is not the team leader he was last year. Bartlett has had his share of defensive struggles of late as well. In a name-game, Rollins would have the edge, but right here it is a tie.
Edge: Tie
Left Field:
Carl Crawford (TB) vs Pat Burrell (PHI)
Though Crawford does not have any homeruns in the playoffs, he does have 6 stolen bases. He has a .303 batting average and 6 RBI as well. The Phillies' Pat Burrell does have some power, hitting 3 homeruns and 9 RBI in 9 games. He has a .300 batting average as well with a .964 OPS. It is very close between the two of them, so I will probably give this a tie. Crawford has the speed the Rays need and Burrell is showing the power the Phillies have lacked in the postseason.
Edge: Tie
Center Field:
B.J. Upton (TB) vs Shane Victorino (PHI)
Upton has had a tremendous postseason and that cannot be denied. He hit 7 homeruns with 15 RBI in the 11 games played with a .304 average and an OPS close to 1.200. 9 of Upton's 14 hits have been for extra-bases and he also has 2 stolen bases. Shane Victorino's arm patrolling center field for the Phillies is a valuable asset to have. He has a lot of speed with his 3 stolen bases. "The Flyin' Hawaiian" has 2 homeruns and 11 RBI for the Phillies too. Upton's power is just too much to compare with Victorino's statistics.
Edge: Upton
Right Field:
Gabe Gross/Rocco Baldelli (TB) vs Jayson Werth (PHI)
Gross and Baldelli have not had the greatest statistics in the playoffs. Gross is batting below .100 and Baldelli is only batting .214. Werth's numbers have not been great either, but certainly better than those of the Rays'. Werth has 1 RBI (via solo homerun) and a .243 batting average. Neither right fielder has been successful but Werth gets the edge here.
Edge: Werth
Designated Hitter (when necessary):
Cliff Floyd (TB) vs Matt Stairs (PHI)
Floyd only has a .200 batting average with a homerun and 2 RBI. The 35-year old outfielder has been on a sharp decline since his spectacular 2005 season with 34 homeruns and 98 RBI. Since, he only has 31 homeruns and 128 in the 3 seasons since. Matt Stairs only has 3 postseason at-bats this year. He is 1/3 with a 2-run homerun. Both have struggled throughout their careers and throughout their playoff games in 2008 (granted, Stairs only had 3 at-bats) but overall it is a tie.
Edge: Tie
Starting Rotation:
Shields/Kazmir/Garza/Sonnanstine (TB) vs Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton (PHI)
James Shields was chosen as the postseason ace for a reason: he is a big game pitcher. His record does not show for it. He is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Not bad for the 26 year old. Scott Kazmir has gone through struggles of his own. Though he is 1-0, he has 2 no-decisions. He finished the ALDS and ALCS with an era of 4.02. Kazmir is a very good southpaw pitcher for the Rays and the 23 year old can only improve. Matt Garza won the ALCS MVP for a reason: he was that good. In 13 ALCS innings pitched, he allowed only 2 runs and had 14 Ks. Andy Sonnanstine was 2-0 in the playoffs with a 3.46 ERA. He is not a power pitcher like Kazmir or Garza, but Sonnanstine has been effective, allowing only 9 hits and 2 walks in his 13 innings pitched. To say Phillies' pitcher Cole Hamels is great is an understatement. He is 3-0 in the 2008 playoffs with 22 Ks in 22 innings pitched. He has a 1.23 ERA, allowing only 3 runs in his performance. Hamels is one of the league's best left-handed pitchers now and because he's only 24, there is a long time for his dominance to be shown around baseball. Brett Myers is 2-0 in the postseason but with a 5.25 ERA. He allowed 7 runs in 12 IP in the playoffs to date. Jamie Moyer has had a postseason to forget. He has pitched in 2 games but for a total of 5.1 innings. He allowed 8 earned runs in those innings with 10 hits and 3 walks. Aside from Cole Hamels, Philly's rotation is subpar. The Rays have a great, young rotation.
Edge: Rays
Bullpen:
Rays vs Phillies
Grant Balfour has had a good postseason with the exception of 1 outing (4 ER in .2 ip). Aside from that one dreadful outing, he allowed 1run in 5 innings. Chad Bradford allowed only 1 run in 6 innings pitched for the Rays as well. Lefties J.P. Howell and Trever Miller pitched a combined 10.1 innings, allowing only 2 runs and striking out 13. Dan Wheeler also had skewed playoff statistics. He pitched 6 innings and allowed 4 runs, but in 1 outing he pitched 1.1 innings and allowed 3 runs. David Price pitched 2.1 shutout innings in the playoffs too. Philadelphia's bullpen has been led by Clay Condrey (1.2 ip, 1 earned run), Scott Eyre (2.1 ip, 1 er), Chad Durbin (2.2 ip, 2 r, 1 er), J.A. Happ (3 ip, 1 er), J.C. Romero (2.2 shutout innings), and Ryan Madson (9 ip, 1 run). Brad Lidge, the Philly closer, has 5 saves and struck out 10 in 7.1 innings. It is too close to call, but Philadelphia gets the egde because of its consistency.
Edge: Phillies
Prediction:
I am predicting the Rays to win the World Series in 6 games. Cole Hamels is too good to beat this postseason and the Rays will take advantage of the rest of the weak Philly rotation. The Rays' offense has slugged their way to victory and will continue to do so.
Catcher:
Dioner Navarro (TB) vs Carlos Ruiz (PHI)
Navarro's postseason has not been great compared to his regular season. He is batting .268 with no homeruns and 5 RBI. Carlos Ruiz's postseason has not been great either, hitting .200 with only 1 RBI. Both have bad offensive numbers, but the edge here goes to Navarro because of the great game he calls. Navarro can manage pitchers very well and knows what pitch to call in key situations.
Edge: Navarro
First Base:
Carlos Pena (TB) vs Ryan Howard (PHI)
In the postseason, Pena is .333 with 3 homeruns, 8 RBI, and an OPS over 1.000. Pena also has 3 stolen bases, 2 more than he had in all of the regular season. Ryan Howard's postseason performance has been mediocre. A .258 batting average with no homeruns and a mere 3 RBI have not shown his full potential. His .733 OPS is over .150 points below his regular season average. Between their playoff performance, Pena has outmatched Howard by a landslide.
Edge: Pena
Second Base:
Akinori Iwamura (TB) vs Chase Utley (PHI)
Iwamura's postseason has been alright by his standards. A .277 batting average is close to what he put up in the regular season. He has 1 homerun, 4 RBI, and a .805 OPS in the playoffs. His SLG in the postseason is .067 points higher than in the regular season. Chase Utley has also struggled in the postseason with a .250 batting average, 1 homerun, 5 RBI, and an OPS of .838 (nearly .080 points below his regular season total). With their playoff performance, I'd call this a tie, but with their impact on their team, the edge goes to Utley.
Edge: Utley
Third Base:
Evan Longoria (TB) vs Pedro Feliz (PHI)
Longoria's postseason has been up and down. He began the playoffs with 2 homeruns in as many at-bats in the ALDS against the Whitesox. After game 1 (3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI), he fell in an 0-13 slump. In the ALCS against the Redsox, Longoria began struggling, but than emerged powerful, hitting 4 homeruns in consecutive games. His subtotal statistics were .262 with 6 homeruns and 11 RBI and a 1.102 OPS. Pedro Feliz has not had as good a postseason as Longoria. Feliz's batting average in the playoffs is below the Mendoza line, only 5 hits in 26 at-bats. He has no homeruns and only 2 RBI. Longoria is the better player.
Edge: Longoria
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett (TB) vs Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
Jason Bartlett's postseason is not all too well either with a .243 batting average and only 1 HR. Jimmy Rollins' statistics are almost identical to Bartlett's. He too has a .243 batting average but only has 2 homeruns. Bartlett and Rollins combined have 3 RBI, all via solo homeruns. Rollins is not the team leader he was last year. Bartlett has had his share of defensive struggles of late as well. In a name-game, Rollins would have the edge, but right here it is a tie.
Edge: Tie
Left Field:
Carl Crawford (TB) vs Pat Burrell (PHI)
Though Crawford does not have any homeruns in the playoffs, he does have 6 stolen bases. He has a .303 batting average and 6 RBI as well. The Phillies' Pat Burrell does have some power, hitting 3 homeruns and 9 RBI in 9 games. He has a .300 batting average as well with a .964 OPS. It is very close between the two of them, so I will probably give this a tie. Crawford has the speed the Rays need and Burrell is showing the power the Phillies have lacked in the postseason.
Edge: Tie
Center Field:
B.J. Upton (TB) vs Shane Victorino (PHI)
Upton has had a tremendous postseason and that cannot be denied. He hit 7 homeruns with 15 RBI in the 11 games played with a .304 average and an OPS close to 1.200. 9 of Upton's 14 hits have been for extra-bases and he also has 2 stolen bases. Shane Victorino's arm patrolling center field for the Phillies is a valuable asset to have. He has a lot of speed with his 3 stolen bases. "The Flyin' Hawaiian" has 2 homeruns and 11 RBI for the Phillies too. Upton's power is just too much to compare with Victorino's statistics.
Edge: Upton
Right Field:
Gabe Gross/Rocco Baldelli (TB) vs Jayson Werth (PHI)
Gross and Baldelli have not had the greatest statistics in the playoffs. Gross is batting below .100 and Baldelli is only batting .214. Werth's numbers have not been great either, but certainly better than those of the Rays'. Werth has 1 RBI (via solo homerun) and a .243 batting average. Neither right fielder has been successful but Werth gets the edge here.
Edge: Werth
Designated Hitter (when necessary):
Cliff Floyd (TB) vs Matt Stairs (PHI)
Floyd only has a .200 batting average with a homerun and 2 RBI. The 35-year old outfielder has been on a sharp decline since his spectacular 2005 season with 34 homeruns and 98 RBI. Since, he only has 31 homeruns and 128 in the 3 seasons since. Matt Stairs only has 3 postseason at-bats this year. He is 1/3 with a 2-run homerun. Both have struggled throughout their careers and throughout their playoff games in 2008 (granted, Stairs only had 3 at-bats) but overall it is a tie.
Edge: Tie
Starting Rotation:
Shields/Kazmir/Garza/Sonnanstine (TB) vs Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton (PHI)
James Shields was chosen as the postseason ace for a reason: he is a big game pitcher. His record does not show for it. He is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Not bad for the 26 year old. Scott Kazmir has gone through struggles of his own. Though he is 1-0, he has 2 no-decisions. He finished the ALDS and ALCS with an era of 4.02. Kazmir is a very good southpaw pitcher for the Rays and the 23 year old can only improve. Matt Garza won the ALCS MVP for a reason: he was that good. In 13 ALCS innings pitched, he allowed only 2 runs and had 14 Ks. Andy Sonnanstine was 2-0 in the playoffs with a 3.46 ERA. He is not a power pitcher like Kazmir or Garza, but Sonnanstine has been effective, allowing only 9 hits and 2 walks in his 13 innings pitched. To say Phillies' pitcher Cole Hamels is great is an understatement. He is 3-0 in the 2008 playoffs with 22 Ks in 22 innings pitched. He has a 1.23 ERA, allowing only 3 runs in his performance. Hamels is one of the league's best left-handed pitchers now and because he's only 24, there is a long time for his dominance to be shown around baseball. Brett Myers is 2-0 in the postseason but with a 5.25 ERA. He allowed 7 runs in 12 IP in the playoffs to date. Jamie Moyer has had a postseason to forget. He has pitched in 2 games but for a total of 5.1 innings. He allowed 8 earned runs in those innings with 10 hits and 3 walks. Aside from Cole Hamels, Philly's rotation is subpar. The Rays have a great, young rotation.
Edge: Rays
Bullpen:
Rays vs Phillies
Grant Balfour has had a good postseason with the exception of 1 outing (4 ER in .2 ip). Aside from that one dreadful outing, he allowed 1run in 5 innings. Chad Bradford allowed only 1 run in 6 innings pitched for the Rays as well. Lefties J.P. Howell and Trever Miller pitched a combined 10.1 innings, allowing only 2 runs and striking out 13. Dan Wheeler also had skewed playoff statistics. He pitched 6 innings and allowed 4 runs, but in 1 outing he pitched 1.1 innings and allowed 3 runs. David Price pitched 2.1 shutout innings in the playoffs too. Philadelphia's bullpen has been led by Clay Condrey (1.2 ip, 1 earned run), Scott Eyre (2.1 ip, 1 er), Chad Durbin (2.2 ip, 2 r, 1 er), J.A. Happ (3 ip, 1 er), J.C. Romero (2.2 shutout innings), and Ryan Madson (9 ip, 1 run). Brad Lidge, the Philly closer, has 5 saves and struck out 10 in 7.1 innings. It is too close to call, but Philadelphia gets the egde because of its consistency.
Edge: Phillies
Prediction:
I am predicting the Rays to win the World Series in 6 games. Cole Hamels is too good to beat this postseason and the Rays will take advantage of the rest of the weak Philly rotation. The Rays' offense has slugged their way to victory and will continue to do so.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
LCS Predictions
So I was 1/4 with my guesses. Tampa Bay won, but the Angels, Cubs, and Brewers all lost. The ALCS will be the Boston Redsox vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. The NLCS will be the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. Here are my thoughts:
ALCS
The Rays and the Redsox came off ALDS wins in 4 games. The Rays' offense was led by BJ Upton and Evan Longoria, both of whom had multi-homerun games. Akinori Iwamura had a .389 batting average and Dioner Navarro had a .400 batting average. The Rays' rotation was satisfactory. Though each Ray starter only pitched 1 game, Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine had ERAs of 3.38 and 3.18 respectively. James Shields and Matt Garza both struggled a bit in their starts, posting ERAs of 4.26 and 7.50. The Tampa Bay bullpen was filled with success. JP Howell, Chad Bradford, and Grant Balfour did not allow a run in their combined 10.2 innings.
The Redsox offense was bright too. Jacoby Ellsbury had 6 RBI and a .333 batting average. Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez's replacement, hit .412 with 2 homeruns in the ALDS against the Angels. Jon Lester was superb in his 2 starts against the Los Angeles Angels. In 2 starts, Lester threw 14 shutout innings and struck out 11 batters. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka both struggled, going a combined 10 innings with 7 earned runs allowed (6.30 ERA). Jon Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen held the Redsox bullpen strong by pitching a total of 7.1 shutout innings.
The teams will face eachother in the ALCS, so who will win? The Redsox have a ton of postseason experience. They have won 2 of the past 4 World Series after an 86 year drought. However, the Rays were 10-8 against the Redsox in the 2008 season. The Rays have homefield advantage over the Redsox, and they were 8-1 against the Redsox at home. The Rays also had the best home record in baseball with a 57-24 record at the Trop. The teams do have a lot of bitterness in their rivalry. Brawls have broken out several times, most recently in June when Coco Crisp and James Shields threw punches at eachother. The Rays' rotation is in line to have Shields/Kazmir/Garza/Sonnanstine like they did in the ALDS against the Whitesox. The Redsox will not have ace Jon Lester pitch game 1.
Edge:
Tampa Bay Rays
NLCS
The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a series win against the Milwaukee Brewers. Jimmy Rollins had a .375 batting average for the Phillies. Jason Werth and Shane Victorino also had batting averages over .300. Pat Burrell had 2 homeruns for the Phils. Philadelphia's rotation was very good. Ace pitcher Cole Hamels pitched 8 shutout innings in his one appearance with 9 strikeouts. Brett Myers and Joe Blanton also had quality starts. Their bullpen was proficient too. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge did satisfactory for the Phillies too.
The Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Chicago Cubs in the 2008 NLDS in 3 games. Manny Ramirez was one key player for LA with a .500 batting average and 2 homeruns. James Loney hit the biggest homerun for the Dodgers with a grand slam in game 1 of the NLDS. Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin also performed well for LA. The 3 Dodger starters: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda each showed skill on the mound. In the 19.2 innings they threw, a mere 3 runs were allowed. Cory Wade and Jon Broxton kept the Dodger bullpen firm, pitching a combined 7 shutout innings.
So which team will go to the World Series? In their season series, the teams split their 8 games 4-4. The Dodgers were 4-0 at home against the Phillies and the Phillies were 4-0 at home against the Dodgers. In overall standings, the Phillies had an 8 game lead in the regular season over the Dodgers. However, I think LA can pull it off. Joe Torre has led a team filled with young players to the playoffs. Their rotation is solid with Lowe and Billingsley. Led by Manny Ramirez, their lineup is brimming with talent. The Phillies' offense did score 15 runs in the NLDS, but only scored those runs in a few innings.
Edge:
Los Angeles Dodgers
ALCS
The Rays and the Redsox came off ALDS wins in 4 games. The Rays' offense was led by BJ Upton and Evan Longoria, both of whom had multi-homerun games. Akinori Iwamura had a .389 batting average and Dioner Navarro had a .400 batting average. The Rays' rotation was satisfactory. Though each Ray starter only pitched 1 game, Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine had ERAs of 3.38 and 3.18 respectively. James Shields and Matt Garza both struggled a bit in their starts, posting ERAs of 4.26 and 7.50. The Tampa Bay bullpen was filled with success. JP Howell, Chad Bradford, and Grant Balfour did not allow a run in their combined 10.2 innings.
The Redsox offense was bright too. Jacoby Ellsbury had 6 RBI and a .333 batting average. Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez's replacement, hit .412 with 2 homeruns in the ALDS against the Angels. Jon Lester was superb in his 2 starts against the Los Angeles Angels. In 2 starts, Lester threw 14 shutout innings and struck out 11 batters. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka both struggled, going a combined 10 innings with 7 earned runs allowed (6.30 ERA). Jon Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen held the Redsox bullpen strong by pitching a total of 7.1 shutout innings.
The teams will face eachother in the ALCS, so who will win? The Redsox have a ton of postseason experience. They have won 2 of the past 4 World Series after an 86 year drought. However, the Rays were 10-8 against the Redsox in the 2008 season. The Rays have homefield advantage over the Redsox, and they were 8-1 against the Redsox at home. The Rays also had the best home record in baseball with a 57-24 record at the Trop. The teams do have a lot of bitterness in their rivalry. Brawls have broken out several times, most recently in June when Coco Crisp and James Shields threw punches at eachother. The Rays' rotation is in line to have Shields/Kazmir/Garza/Sonnanstine like they did in the ALDS against the Whitesox. The Redsox will not have ace Jon Lester pitch game 1.
Edge:
Tampa Bay Rays
NLCS
The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a series win against the Milwaukee Brewers. Jimmy Rollins had a .375 batting average for the Phillies. Jason Werth and Shane Victorino also had batting averages over .300. Pat Burrell had 2 homeruns for the Phils. Philadelphia's rotation was very good. Ace pitcher Cole Hamels pitched 8 shutout innings in his one appearance with 9 strikeouts. Brett Myers and Joe Blanton also had quality starts. Their bullpen was proficient too. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge did satisfactory for the Phillies too.
The Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Chicago Cubs in the 2008 NLDS in 3 games. Manny Ramirez was one key player for LA with a .500 batting average and 2 homeruns. James Loney hit the biggest homerun for the Dodgers with a grand slam in game 1 of the NLDS. Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin also performed well for LA. The 3 Dodger starters: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda each showed skill on the mound. In the 19.2 innings they threw, a mere 3 runs were allowed. Cory Wade and Jon Broxton kept the Dodger bullpen firm, pitching a combined 7 shutout innings.
So which team will go to the World Series? In their season series, the teams split their 8 games 4-4. The Dodgers were 4-0 at home against the Phillies and the Phillies were 4-0 at home against the Dodgers. In overall standings, the Phillies had an 8 game lead in the regular season over the Dodgers. However, I think LA can pull it off. Joe Torre has led a team filled with young players to the playoffs. Their rotation is solid with Lowe and Billingsley. Led by Manny Ramirez, their lineup is brimming with talent. The Phillies' offense did score 15 runs in the NLDS, but only scored those runs in a few innings.
Edge:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
October Predictions: MLB Postseason
The 2008 baseball season has come to an end and we head to the playoffs. Baseball changes in October and that is where the season has gone. The Tampa Bay Rays emerged as baseball’s surprised team and made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The New York Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993. The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians, both preseason favorites to make the postseason, came nowhere close to contention. The Chicago Cubs look to end their century-long World Series title drought. The Los Angeles Dodgers, led by new manager Joe Torre, overcame the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies to win the National League West. Now that October baseball will begin, who will win the 2008 World Series?
The case for the Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays came into the season with a change of uniform, logo, and team name. They became the “Rays” instead of the “Devil Rays”. In spite of 4th place predictions, the Rays’ overcame them by remarkable proportions. The Rays have 96 wins, 25 more than their previous franchise-high. The story of the Rays is a motto coined by manager Joe Maddon. Their mantra is “9=8”, which represents “9 innings of baseball (and 9 hearts on the field) equals 1 of 8 teams to make the playoffs”. The Rays’ pitching went through an incredible breakthrough. Troy Percival joined the Rays and helped their bullpen. A trade with the Twins helped the Rays’ pitching staff acquire Matt Garza and helped the Rays’ defense with shortstop Jason Bartlett. Garza, 24, had a great season but was not shown by his 11-9 record. Garza’s 3.66 ERA was fantastic and also had 3 complete games, 2 of which shutouts. Scott Kazmir and James Shields also proved to be brilliant pitchers. The two had a combined 26-16 record with a 3.54 ERA. Shields too had 3 complete games. Pitchers Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine also proved to be stunning pitchers. They had no major expectations entering the season but went a combined 26-19 (13 wins each). The Rays’ pitching staff had a team ERA of 3.78, 1.75 points lower than last season. Their bullpen has also been very successful. Last season, the Rays had 58 holds, last in the majors. This season, the Rays have 79 holds, which is 4th in all of baseball. The Rays’ offense has also been a great story too. Rookie 3rd baseman Evan Longoria was called up from AAA Durham in late April and has done a magnificent job, hitting 27 homeruns and 85 RBI. Carlos Pena led the Rays with 31 homeruns and 101 RBI. Clutch hitting played a big part for the Rays in 2008. In the late innings of 2008, Akinori Iwamura and the aforementioned Pena hit .301 and .341 respectively. To make room for Evan Longoria, their future 3rd baseman for years to come, they moved Akinori Iwamura to 2nd base full time and flourished. As a team, the Rays’ defense had a .985 fielding percentage, tied for 8th in all of baseball. In 2007, the Rays’ defense had a .980 fielding percentage, tied for 20th in baseball.
So why do the Rays have a shot at the World Series? There were only 2 teams in baseball that had a winning record against the Rays: the Indians and the Yankees, and both of whom are missing the postseason. Pitching phenom David Price has a chance to make the playoff roster as a starter. Price was 12-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in the minor leagues in 2008. The southpaw was drafted last year from Vanderbilt University. A 4-man rotation of Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price would be dominant for now and for the future. The Rays can hit in the clutch as many of their wins have came in their last at-bat. They have a great team now and a team built for the future.
The case for the Chicago Whitesox
The Whitesox, led by manager Ozzie Guillen, made the playoffs for the first time since 2005. In the offseason, the Whitesox acquired Carlos Quentin from the Arizona Diamondbacks for top prospect Chris Carter. Quentin’s impact with the Whitesox was tremendous. He led the American League with 36 homeruns before he was sidelined for almost the entire month of September with a broken wrist. Quentin’s 100 RBI also led the team. Quentin could have won the American League MVP award had he not been injured. Teammates Jermaine Dye and rookie Alexei Ramirez were tied for the team lead in batting average (.290). Dye hit 34 homeruns for the Chi-Sox and Ramirez’s presence gave the Whitesox a huge boost. Jim Thome also hit 34 homeruns and fellow teammates Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher hit 22 and 24 respectively. In the midst of the summer months, the Whitesox traded for former Reds’ outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. Pitching was a good success for the Whitesox too. Gavin Floyd and John Danks were unexpected sources of wealth for Chicago. They had a combined 29-17 record with an ERA under 4.00. Mark Buerhle also had a 15-12 record. Bobby Jenks had an okay season in the closer role, converting 30 of his 34 save opportunities. The Whitesox season was surrounded by controversies surrounding manager Ozzie Guillen. Guillen openly criticized the media and his players over the course of the season. The Whitesox ended the regular season in a 1st place tie with the Minnesota Twins, which forced a 1-game playoff. Jim Thome hit a 461-foot homerun in the 7th inning gave the Whitesox a 1-0 lead, which would be enough for the Whitesox to advance to the playoffs.
But do the Whitesox have a good chance to win it all? They do have some momentum heading into their series with the Rays and they can slug it out, but can they match up with the Rays? The Rays can hit the long ball and can play small ball whereas the Whitesox are primarily a long ball type team. The Rays can outpitch the Sox and Chicago would need to play their hearts out to compete with the other top-tier teams in the playoffs.
The case for the Los Angeles Angels
The Angels entered the 2008 campaign as serious World Series contenders, and ended up doing just that. They suffered injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, two of their top pitchers. They needed Joe Saunders, Jon Garland, and Ervin Santana to fill in for the injured starters. The 3 pitchers amassed for a 46-21 record and a 3.87 ERA. When Lackey came back in mid-May, he started strong and continued strong, having a 3.25 ERA through 23 games pitched. Closer Francisco Rodriguez had accumulated 62 saves this season, shattering the old mark held by Bobby Thigpen (57 saves). The rest of the Angel bullpen also was thriving. Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo had a combined 2.21 ERA and 47 holds. Darren Oliver and Justin Speier also collected a total of 22 saves. LA’s offense also prospered. The newly acquired Torii Hunter and the veteran Vlad Guerrero combined for 48 homeruns and 168 RBI. Chone Figgins led the team with 32 stolen bases. The Angels entered a win-now mentality when they traded for 1st baseman Mark Teixeira, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. With the Angels, Teixeira hit .362 with 13 homeruns and 42 RBI. The Angels were the 1st team in baseball in 2008 to clinch a playoff berth this year, with 99 wins and a 22 game lead over the 2nd place Texas Rangers.
With the Angels doing this successful, does it not seem logical that they will win the World Series? Though they have the best record in all of baseball, they have a 3-6 record against the Rays, who also have a very good shot to win the pennant. The Angels also played in the weakest division in the American League talent-wise.
The case for the Boston Redsox
The reigning World Series Champions began the season as prime contenders as champions once again. The Sox expected Josh Beckett to lead the staff and have Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester used as solid 2/3 starters. The 2008 season turned out very different from that. Matsuzaka finished the season with 18 wins and a 2.80 ERA. Cancer survivor Jon Lester also proved to be valuable for Boston. The lefty went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, including 2 complete game shutouts. Compared to his 2007 season, Josh Beckett was mediocre. In 2007, Beckett was a prime Cy Young award contender, but he would not be in 2008. His 12-10 record seems pedestrian and his 4.03 ERA is also second-rate. Potential MVP candidate David Ortiz was out from late May to late July with a wrist injury. The Redsox needed Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and J.D. Drew to fill in. Pedroia and Youkilis filled in and thrived. Both of them are potential MVP candidates for the 2008 season. They hit .325 and .314 respectively and also did very well in clutch situations. While Ortiz was out, J.D. Drew prospered. At one point of Ortiz’s absence, Drew raised his batting average from .282 to .327. At the trade deadline, things started to change for Manny Ramirez and the Redsox. Ramirez’s lack of hustle, off-the-field antics, and disrespect towards the team led to him being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 3-team trade that gave the Redsox Jason Bay in return from the Pirates. Bay has since hustled and played very well, with a .300 batting average with the Redsox. With poor play of the Yankees and the American League Central on the stretch run, the Redsox became the American League Wild Card winners.
Redsox Nation’s main source of victory will be from their offense. Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowell, Ortiz, and Bay will all do a good job in the postseason, but the cause for concern is the bullpen. Is Jon Papelbon reliable enough to close down in a crucial situation? Can Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen do well in the bullpen? Can Mike Timlin find where he was in 2005? The Angels are 8-1 against the Redsox in 2008 and they have the better rotation and bullpen than Boston’s.
The case for the Philadelphia Phillies
On paper, this team looked like a team that would slug their way to the playoffs. Well, the Phillies had pitching too. They rank 6th in all of baseball in ERA (3.91). Closer Brad Lidge is a perfect 40/40 in saves and save opportunities. Starters Jamie Moyer and Cole Hamels had a combined 29-17 record with a combined ERA of 3.40. The Philly offense had its struggles, revolving around the 2007 National League MVP Jimmy Rollins. Rollins criticized Phillies’ fans earlier in the year, calling them “bandwagoners” and “front-runners” when he appeared on “Best Damn Sports Show Period”. 1st baseman Ryan Howard also went through rough patches in the season. As late as May 21st, Howard’s batting average was below the Mendoza line, at a putrid .195. Up until the beginning of July, Howard was sitting at .215 with 20 homeruns and 68 RBI. Howard didn’t get red hot until after the All-Star break, hitting 20 homeruns and 58 RBI since; 11 homeruns in the month of September. Teammate Chase Utley started the season on a rampage, hitting 18 homeruns through May. He has slowed down rapidly, only hitting 12 homers since.
Now that the Phillies will make the playoffs, where will they go? Their bullpen has been terrific and so has their offense. The cause for concern is their rotation. Can Hamels and Moyer go deep into games? Will the Phillies use Brad Lidge in a non-save situation for more than 1 inning? Can Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton have quality outings in the playoffs? They will face some quality teams in the playoffs like the Cubs, Brewers, and the Dodgers.
The case for the Chicago Cubs
The Cubs last won a World Series in 1908. They have not appeared in one since the 1940s. Why do Cubs fans think this is the year the drought ends? Well, the Cubs are 5th in baseball in team batting average, 8th in homeruns, and 2nd in runs scored. Rookie catcher Geovany Soto is 3rd on the team with 23 homeruns, behind Alfonso Soriano (29) and Derrek Lee (27). Soto had more of an impact than fellow rookie teammate Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome, the Asian outfielder hit a measly .257 with a mere 10 homeruns. Since the All-Star break, Fukudome has only hit .217 in 60 games played. The real story behind Chicago’s success is their pitching. Ryan Dempster surely came as a pleasant surprise. Dempster was 17-6 with an ERA under 3.00 in the regular season. Fireballer Carlos Zambrano also fared well. Though Zambrano only had 14 wins, he did throw a no-hitter against the Houston Astros at Milwaukee because of Hurricane Ike. The Big Z has battled inflammation in his shoulder at times this season.
Do the Cubs have a legitimate shot at the World Series? Yes they do. They have a strong enough offense with Soriano, Lee, Soto, and Aramis Ramirez. Their rotation also consists of Ted Lilly and the acquired Rich Harden, which makes the Cubs prime challengers for the World Series. Harden was 10-2 on the season with the Oakland Athletics and the Cubs (5-1 for each team) with an ERA of 2.07. Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, and Lilly make a fierce rotation for the playoffs.
The case for the Los Angeles Dodgers
Led by new manager Joe Torre, the Los Angeles Dodgers made the playoffs. They surpassed the miraculous Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers suffered an early setback by losing closer Takashi Saito for an extended period of time. They had to use Jonathan Broxton to replace Saito. The Dodgers’ rotation was led by 24 year-old Chad Billingsley, who was 16-10 with a 3.17 ERA. Billingsley also led the Dodgers with 199 strikeouts. Derek Lowe did a satisfactory job for LA with his 3.29 ERA in 33 starts. Rookie pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda had a combined 4.01 ERA in their 51 combined appearances. Late in the season, the Dodgers acquired Greg Maddux from the San Diego Padres. With LA, the 42 year old veteran has not had many things to smile about statistically. His appalling 5.71 ERA with the team is a warning sign. Hitting-wise, the Dodgers had somewhat a tough time. Outfielder Andruw Jones struggled immensely with a dreadful .158 batting average. Fellow teammates Matt Kemp and James Loney performed well. The two had a combined .292 batting average with 31 homeruns and 166 RBI. Kemp stole 35 bases too, 2nd on his own team to Juan Pierre (39). But at the trade deadline, the Dodgers realized they needed to add a power bat to the lineup. They made a blockbuster trade with the Redsox and the Pittsburgh Pirates by acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Redsox and trading away 2 young prospects to the Pirates. Ramirez has since been a display of excellence. In 52 games with the Dodgers, Ramirez is batting a high .396 with 17 homeruns and 53 RBI. With Boston, Ramirez played 100 games and hit 20 homeruns with 68 RBI. His presence sparked the Dodgers to overcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West.
But do the Dodgers have what it takes to win it all? Their postseason rotation is solid, especially with Billingsley. The difference maker will be the rest of the pitching. The Dodgers need Lowe, Maddux, and Kuroda/Kershaw to do well in order to make some noise. Their offense needs to carry the team, Manny Ramirez in particular. If the Dodgers face the Cubs in the NLDS, they desperately need Ramirez, Russell Martin, Loney, and Kemp to step up big time.
The case for the Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers came into the season with high hopes that they would reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. They began the season with second-year players Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo looking to have even better seasons. Gallardo suffered 2 injuries early on: a torn meniscus that sidelined him for nearly a month (late March to late April) and a torn ACL which put him out from early May to very late September. The Brewers would suffice with pitchers Manny Parra (10-8) and Dave Bush. In early July, the Brewers made a trade that sent them in “win-now” mentality by trading 4 players (including top prospect Matt LaPorta) to the Cleveland Indians for reigning American League Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia. Sabathia’s presence would be enormous. In 17 starts with the Brewers, Sabathia pitched 130.2 out of 153 possible innings with an 11-2 record. Sabathia also pitched 7 complete games and 3 shutouts, one of which a controversial 1-hitter. Ryan Braun hit 34 homeruns and 96 RBI in his rookie season, and his 2nd season with Milwaukee was similar. He hit 37 homeruns with 106 RBI. Teammate Prince Fielder hit 34 homeruns with 102 RBI. Mike Cameron, JJ Hardy, and Corey Hart were all fine hitters for the Brew Crew. They hit a combined 69 homeruns and 235 RBI. Late in the season, the Brewers fired their manager Ned Yost and promoted Dale Sveum to interim manager. The Brewers’ push to the playoffs came to the last game of the regular season, tied with the New York Mets for 1st in the wild card. The Brewers needed a win and a Mets’ loss to make the playoffs. To help secure a spot, they had CC Sabathia pitch on 3-days rest. Sabathia could not have done any better. He pitched a complete game and allowed only 1 run to lock up their playoff status.
Can the Brew Crew make a significant run in the playoffs? They need Sabathia and Sheets to step up big time with their shaky bullpen. Eric Gagne had a 5.44 ERA and closer Salomon Torres had a 3.49 ERA, very high for a closer. If the Milwaukee offense can slug and their pitching can hold up, expect Milwaukee to be serious World Series contenders.
My Predictions:
ALDS: Rays over Whitesox (4 games) and Angels over Redsox (5 games)
NLDS: Cubs over Dodgers (4 games) and Brewers over Phillies (5 games)
ALCS: Rays over Angels (6 games)
NLCS: Cubs over Brewers (7 games)
World Series: Rays over Cubs (6 games)
Having the Tampa Bay Rays as World Series champions sounded absolutely preposterous at the beginning of the season, but the Rays proved they can contend for the playoffs and for the World Series. They have a bright future with their plethora of minor league talent. They can be a threat to be in the playoffs for years to come.
The case for the Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays came into the season with a change of uniform, logo, and team name. They became the “Rays” instead of the “Devil Rays”. In spite of 4th place predictions, the Rays’ overcame them by remarkable proportions. The Rays have 96 wins, 25 more than their previous franchise-high. The story of the Rays is a motto coined by manager Joe Maddon. Their mantra is “9=8”, which represents “9 innings of baseball (and 9 hearts on the field) equals 1 of 8 teams to make the playoffs”. The Rays’ pitching went through an incredible breakthrough. Troy Percival joined the Rays and helped their bullpen. A trade with the Twins helped the Rays’ pitching staff acquire Matt Garza and helped the Rays’ defense with shortstop Jason Bartlett. Garza, 24, had a great season but was not shown by his 11-9 record. Garza’s 3.66 ERA was fantastic and also had 3 complete games, 2 of which shutouts. Scott Kazmir and James Shields also proved to be brilliant pitchers. The two had a combined 26-16 record with a 3.54 ERA. Shields too had 3 complete games. Pitchers Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine also proved to be stunning pitchers. They had no major expectations entering the season but went a combined 26-19 (13 wins each). The Rays’ pitching staff had a team ERA of 3.78, 1.75 points lower than last season. Their bullpen has also been very successful. Last season, the Rays had 58 holds, last in the majors. This season, the Rays have 79 holds, which is 4th in all of baseball. The Rays’ offense has also been a great story too. Rookie 3rd baseman Evan Longoria was called up from AAA Durham in late April and has done a magnificent job, hitting 27 homeruns and 85 RBI. Carlos Pena led the Rays with 31 homeruns and 101 RBI. Clutch hitting played a big part for the Rays in 2008. In the late innings of 2008, Akinori Iwamura and the aforementioned Pena hit .301 and .341 respectively. To make room for Evan Longoria, their future 3rd baseman for years to come, they moved Akinori Iwamura to 2nd base full time and flourished. As a team, the Rays’ defense had a .985 fielding percentage, tied for 8th in all of baseball. In 2007, the Rays’ defense had a .980 fielding percentage, tied for 20th in baseball.
So why do the Rays have a shot at the World Series? There were only 2 teams in baseball that had a winning record against the Rays: the Indians and the Yankees, and both of whom are missing the postseason. Pitching phenom David Price has a chance to make the playoff roster as a starter. Price was 12-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in the minor leagues in 2008. The southpaw was drafted last year from Vanderbilt University. A 4-man rotation of Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Price would be dominant for now and for the future. The Rays can hit in the clutch as many of their wins have came in their last at-bat. They have a great team now and a team built for the future.
The case for the Chicago Whitesox
The Whitesox, led by manager Ozzie Guillen, made the playoffs for the first time since 2005. In the offseason, the Whitesox acquired Carlos Quentin from the Arizona Diamondbacks for top prospect Chris Carter. Quentin’s impact with the Whitesox was tremendous. He led the American League with 36 homeruns before he was sidelined for almost the entire month of September with a broken wrist. Quentin’s 100 RBI also led the team. Quentin could have won the American League MVP award had he not been injured. Teammates Jermaine Dye and rookie Alexei Ramirez were tied for the team lead in batting average (.290). Dye hit 34 homeruns for the Chi-Sox and Ramirez’s presence gave the Whitesox a huge boost. Jim Thome also hit 34 homeruns and fellow teammates Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher hit 22 and 24 respectively. In the midst of the summer months, the Whitesox traded for former Reds’ outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. Pitching was a good success for the Whitesox too. Gavin Floyd and John Danks were unexpected sources of wealth for Chicago. They had a combined 29-17 record with an ERA under 4.00. Mark Buerhle also had a 15-12 record. Bobby Jenks had an okay season in the closer role, converting 30 of his 34 save opportunities. The Whitesox season was surrounded by controversies surrounding manager Ozzie Guillen. Guillen openly criticized the media and his players over the course of the season. The Whitesox ended the regular season in a 1st place tie with the Minnesota Twins, which forced a 1-game playoff. Jim Thome hit a 461-foot homerun in the 7th inning gave the Whitesox a 1-0 lead, which would be enough for the Whitesox to advance to the playoffs.
But do the Whitesox have a good chance to win it all? They do have some momentum heading into their series with the Rays and they can slug it out, but can they match up with the Rays? The Rays can hit the long ball and can play small ball whereas the Whitesox are primarily a long ball type team. The Rays can outpitch the Sox and Chicago would need to play their hearts out to compete with the other top-tier teams in the playoffs.
The case for the Los Angeles Angels
The Angels entered the 2008 campaign as serious World Series contenders, and ended up doing just that. They suffered injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, two of their top pitchers. They needed Joe Saunders, Jon Garland, and Ervin Santana to fill in for the injured starters. The 3 pitchers amassed for a 46-21 record and a 3.87 ERA. When Lackey came back in mid-May, he started strong and continued strong, having a 3.25 ERA through 23 games pitched. Closer Francisco Rodriguez had accumulated 62 saves this season, shattering the old mark held by Bobby Thigpen (57 saves). The rest of the Angel bullpen also was thriving. Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo had a combined 2.21 ERA and 47 holds. Darren Oliver and Justin Speier also collected a total of 22 saves. LA’s offense also prospered. The newly acquired Torii Hunter and the veteran Vlad Guerrero combined for 48 homeruns and 168 RBI. Chone Figgins led the team with 32 stolen bases. The Angels entered a win-now mentality when they traded for 1st baseman Mark Teixeira, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. With the Angels, Teixeira hit .362 with 13 homeruns and 42 RBI. The Angels were the 1st team in baseball in 2008 to clinch a playoff berth this year, with 99 wins and a 22 game lead over the 2nd place Texas Rangers.
With the Angels doing this successful, does it not seem logical that they will win the World Series? Though they have the best record in all of baseball, they have a 3-6 record against the Rays, who also have a very good shot to win the pennant. The Angels also played in the weakest division in the American League talent-wise.
The case for the Boston Redsox
The reigning World Series Champions began the season as prime contenders as champions once again. The Sox expected Josh Beckett to lead the staff and have Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester used as solid 2/3 starters. The 2008 season turned out very different from that. Matsuzaka finished the season with 18 wins and a 2.80 ERA. Cancer survivor Jon Lester also proved to be valuable for Boston. The lefty went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, including 2 complete game shutouts. Compared to his 2007 season, Josh Beckett was mediocre. In 2007, Beckett was a prime Cy Young award contender, but he would not be in 2008. His 12-10 record seems pedestrian and his 4.03 ERA is also second-rate. Potential MVP candidate David Ortiz was out from late May to late July with a wrist injury. The Redsox needed Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and J.D. Drew to fill in. Pedroia and Youkilis filled in and thrived. Both of them are potential MVP candidates for the 2008 season. They hit .325 and .314 respectively and also did very well in clutch situations. While Ortiz was out, J.D. Drew prospered. At one point of Ortiz’s absence, Drew raised his batting average from .282 to .327. At the trade deadline, things started to change for Manny Ramirez and the Redsox. Ramirez’s lack of hustle, off-the-field antics, and disrespect towards the team led to him being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 3-team trade that gave the Redsox Jason Bay in return from the Pirates. Bay has since hustled and played very well, with a .300 batting average with the Redsox. With poor play of the Yankees and the American League Central on the stretch run, the Redsox became the American League Wild Card winners.
Redsox Nation’s main source of victory will be from their offense. Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowell, Ortiz, and Bay will all do a good job in the postseason, but the cause for concern is the bullpen. Is Jon Papelbon reliable enough to close down in a crucial situation? Can Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen do well in the bullpen? Can Mike Timlin find where he was in 2005? The Angels are 8-1 against the Redsox in 2008 and they have the better rotation and bullpen than Boston’s.
The case for the Philadelphia Phillies
On paper, this team looked like a team that would slug their way to the playoffs. Well, the Phillies had pitching too. They rank 6th in all of baseball in ERA (3.91). Closer Brad Lidge is a perfect 40/40 in saves and save opportunities. Starters Jamie Moyer and Cole Hamels had a combined 29-17 record with a combined ERA of 3.40. The Philly offense had its struggles, revolving around the 2007 National League MVP Jimmy Rollins. Rollins criticized Phillies’ fans earlier in the year, calling them “bandwagoners” and “front-runners” when he appeared on “Best Damn Sports Show Period”. 1st baseman Ryan Howard also went through rough patches in the season. As late as May 21st, Howard’s batting average was below the Mendoza line, at a putrid .195. Up until the beginning of July, Howard was sitting at .215 with 20 homeruns and 68 RBI. Howard didn’t get red hot until after the All-Star break, hitting 20 homeruns and 58 RBI since; 11 homeruns in the month of September. Teammate Chase Utley started the season on a rampage, hitting 18 homeruns through May. He has slowed down rapidly, only hitting 12 homers since.
Now that the Phillies will make the playoffs, where will they go? Their bullpen has been terrific and so has their offense. The cause for concern is their rotation. Can Hamels and Moyer go deep into games? Will the Phillies use Brad Lidge in a non-save situation for more than 1 inning? Can Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton have quality outings in the playoffs? They will face some quality teams in the playoffs like the Cubs, Brewers, and the Dodgers.
The case for the Chicago Cubs
The Cubs last won a World Series in 1908. They have not appeared in one since the 1940s. Why do Cubs fans think this is the year the drought ends? Well, the Cubs are 5th in baseball in team batting average, 8th in homeruns, and 2nd in runs scored. Rookie catcher Geovany Soto is 3rd on the team with 23 homeruns, behind Alfonso Soriano (29) and Derrek Lee (27). Soto had more of an impact than fellow rookie teammate Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome, the Asian outfielder hit a measly .257 with a mere 10 homeruns. Since the All-Star break, Fukudome has only hit .217 in 60 games played. The real story behind Chicago’s success is their pitching. Ryan Dempster surely came as a pleasant surprise. Dempster was 17-6 with an ERA under 3.00 in the regular season. Fireballer Carlos Zambrano also fared well. Though Zambrano only had 14 wins, he did throw a no-hitter against the Houston Astros at Milwaukee because of Hurricane Ike. The Big Z has battled inflammation in his shoulder at times this season.
Do the Cubs have a legitimate shot at the World Series? Yes they do. They have a strong enough offense with Soriano, Lee, Soto, and Aramis Ramirez. Their rotation also consists of Ted Lilly and the acquired Rich Harden, which makes the Cubs prime challengers for the World Series. Harden was 10-2 on the season with the Oakland Athletics and the Cubs (5-1 for each team) with an ERA of 2.07. Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, and Lilly make a fierce rotation for the playoffs.
The case for the Los Angeles Dodgers
Led by new manager Joe Torre, the Los Angeles Dodgers made the playoffs. They surpassed the miraculous Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers suffered an early setback by losing closer Takashi Saito for an extended period of time. They had to use Jonathan Broxton to replace Saito. The Dodgers’ rotation was led by 24 year-old Chad Billingsley, who was 16-10 with a 3.17 ERA. Billingsley also led the Dodgers with 199 strikeouts. Derek Lowe did a satisfactory job for LA with his 3.29 ERA in 33 starts. Rookie pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda had a combined 4.01 ERA in their 51 combined appearances. Late in the season, the Dodgers acquired Greg Maddux from the San Diego Padres. With LA, the 42 year old veteran has not had many things to smile about statistically. His appalling 5.71 ERA with the team is a warning sign. Hitting-wise, the Dodgers had somewhat a tough time. Outfielder Andruw Jones struggled immensely with a dreadful .158 batting average. Fellow teammates Matt Kemp and James Loney performed well. The two had a combined .292 batting average with 31 homeruns and 166 RBI. Kemp stole 35 bases too, 2nd on his own team to Juan Pierre (39). But at the trade deadline, the Dodgers realized they needed to add a power bat to the lineup. They made a blockbuster trade with the Redsox and the Pittsburgh Pirates by acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Redsox and trading away 2 young prospects to the Pirates. Ramirez has since been a display of excellence. In 52 games with the Dodgers, Ramirez is batting a high .396 with 17 homeruns and 53 RBI. With Boston, Ramirez played 100 games and hit 20 homeruns with 68 RBI. His presence sparked the Dodgers to overcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West.
But do the Dodgers have what it takes to win it all? Their postseason rotation is solid, especially with Billingsley. The difference maker will be the rest of the pitching. The Dodgers need Lowe, Maddux, and Kuroda/Kershaw to do well in order to make some noise. Their offense needs to carry the team, Manny Ramirez in particular. If the Dodgers face the Cubs in the NLDS, they desperately need Ramirez, Russell Martin, Loney, and Kemp to step up big time.
The case for the Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers came into the season with high hopes that they would reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. They began the season with second-year players Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo looking to have even better seasons. Gallardo suffered 2 injuries early on: a torn meniscus that sidelined him for nearly a month (late March to late April) and a torn ACL which put him out from early May to very late September. The Brewers would suffice with pitchers Manny Parra (10-8) and Dave Bush. In early July, the Brewers made a trade that sent them in “win-now” mentality by trading 4 players (including top prospect Matt LaPorta) to the Cleveland Indians for reigning American League Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia. Sabathia’s presence would be enormous. In 17 starts with the Brewers, Sabathia pitched 130.2 out of 153 possible innings with an 11-2 record. Sabathia also pitched 7 complete games and 3 shutouts, one of which a controversial 1-hitter. Ryan Braun hit 34 homeruns and 96 RBI in his rookie season, and his 2nd season with Milwaukee was similar. He hit 37 homeruns with 106 RBI. Teammate Prince Fielder hit 34 homeruns with 102 RBI. Mike Cameron, JJ Hardy, and Corey Hart were all fine hitters for the Brew Crew. They hit a combined 69 homeruns and 235 RBI. Late in the season, the Brewers fired their manager Ned Yost and promoted Dale Sveum to interim manager. The Brewers’ push to the playoffs came to the last game of the regular season, tied with the New York Mets for 1st in the wild card. The Brewers needed a win and a Mets’ loss to make the playoffs. To help secure a spot, they had CC Sabathia pitch on 3-days rest. Sabathia could not have done any better. He pitched a complete game and allowed only 1 run to lock up their playoff status.
Can the Brew Crew make a significant run in the playoffs? They need Sabathia and Sheets to step up big time with their shaky bullpen. Eric Gagne had a 5.44 ERA and closer Salomon Torres had a 3.49 ERA, very high for a closer. If the Milwaukee offense can slug and their pitching can hold up, expect Milwaukee to be serious World Series contenders.
My Predictions:
ALDS: Rays over Whitesox (4 games) and Angels over Redsox (5 games)
NLDS: Cubs over Dodgers (4 games) and Brewers over Phillies (5 games)
ALCS: Rays over Angels (6 games)
NLCS: Cubs over Brewers (7 games)
World Series: Rays over Cubs (6 games)
Having the Tampa Bay Rays as World Series champions sounded absolutely preposterous at the beginning of the season, but the Rays proved they can contend for the playoffs and for the World Series. They have a bright future with their plethora of minor league talent. They can be a threat to be in the playoffs for years to come.
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