Wednesday, October 8, 2008

LCS Predictions

So I was 1/4 with my guesses. Tampa Bay won, but the Angels, Cubs, and Brewers all lost. The ALCS will be the Boston Redsox vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. The NLCS will be the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. Here are my thoughts:

ALCS
The Rays and the Redsox came off ALDS wins in 4 games. The Rays' offense was led by BJ Upton and Evan Longoria, both of whom had multi-homerun games. Akinori Iwamura had a .389 batting average and Dioner Navarro had a .400 batting average. The Rays' rotation was satisfactory. Though each Ray starter only pitched 1 game, Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine had ERAs of 3.38 and 3.18 respectively. James Shields and Matt Garza both struggled a bit in their starts, posting ERAs of 4.26 and 7.50. The Tampa Bay bullpen was filled with success. JP Howell, Chad Bradford, and Grant Balfour did not allow a run in their combined 10.2 innings.

The Redsox offense was bright too. Jacoby Ellsbury had 6 RBI and a .333 batting average. Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez's replacement, hit .412 with 2 homeruns in the ALDS against the Angels. Jon Lester was superb in his 2 starts against the Los Angeles Angels. In 2 starts, Lester threw 14 shutout innings and struck out 11 batters. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka both struggled, going a combined 10 innings with 7 earned runs allowed (6.30 ERA). Jon Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen held the Redsox bullpen strong by pitching a total of 7.1 shutout innings.

The teams will face eachother in the ALCS, so who will win? The Redsox have a ton of postseason experience. They have won 2 of the past 4 World Series after an 86 year drought. However, the Rays were 10-8 against the Redsox in the 2008 season. The Rays have homefield advantage over the Redsox, and they were 8-1 against the Redsox at home. The Rays also had the best home record in baseball with a 57-24 record at the Trop. The teams do have a lot of bitterness in their rivalry. Brawls have broken out several times, most recently in June when Coco Crisp and James Shields threw punches at eachother. The Rays' rotation is in line to have Shields/Kazmir/Garza/Sonnanstine like they did in the ALDS against the Whitesox. The Redsox will not have ace Jon Lester pitch game 1.

Edge:
Tampa Bay Rays

NLCS
The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a series win against the Milwaukee Brewers. Jimmy Rollins had a .375 batting average for the Phillies. Jason Werth and Shane Victorino also had batting averages over .300. Pat Burrell had 2 homeruns for the Phils. Philadelphia's rotation was very good. Ace pitcher Cole Hamels pitched 8 shutout innings in his one appearance with 9 strikeouts. Brett Myers and Joe Blanton also had quality starts. Their bullpen was proficient too. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge did satisfactory for the Phillies too.

The Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Chicago Cubs in the 2008 NLDS in 3 games. Manny Ramirez was one key player for LA with a .500 batting average and 2 homeruns. James Loney hit the biggest homerun for the Dodgers with a grand slam in game 1 of the NLDS. Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin also performed well for LA. The 3 Dodger starters: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda each showed skill on the mound. In the 19.2 innings they threw, a mere 3 runs were allowed. Cory Wade and Jon Broxton kept the Dodger bullpen firm, pitching a combined 7 shutout innings.

So which team will go to the World Series? In their season series, the teams split their 8 games 4-4. The Dodgers were 4-0 at home against the Phillies and the Phillies were 4-0 at home against the Dodgers. In overall standings, the Phillies had an 8 game lead in the regular season over the Dodgers. However, I think LA can pull it off. Joe Torre has led a team filled with young players to the playoffs. Their rotation is solid with Lowe and Billingsley. Led by Manny Ramirez, their lineup is brimming with talent. The Phillies' offense did score 15 runs in the NLDS, but only scored those runs in a few innings.

Edge:
Los Angeles Dodgers

No comments: