Brady out, Cassel in

The New England Patriots entered the 2008 campaign as a strong contender to win the Super Bowl after their devastating loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. However, after a week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, experts, analysts, and fans rethought their Patriot predictions.

Chiefs’ safety Bernard Pollard tackled Tom Brady early in the 1st quarter and Brady was seriously hurt as he did not get up immediately. He had to be helped off the field with the trainer and left the game. The Boston Globe reported that Brady had a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. Brady’s injury requires surgery and he will miss the entire 2008 season. Now it is time for backup quarterback Matt Cassel to step in.

Cassel was a 7th round draft pick in the 2005 NFL draft from the University of Southern California. Cassel is not as polished as Brady, nor is he as experienced as Brady. His college football career consisted of a mere 33 pass attempts. He sat behind Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, both current NFL quarterbacks. He has not started a game since the year 2000, when he was a senior in high school. Brady was a starting quarterback for the University of Michigan in 1998 and 1999 when he started all 25 games in that span. Brady was a starter for his high school varsity team as well. In Cassel’s NFL career, he has played scarcely. He has only played in 15 games in his 4 seasons with the Patriots and only has 57 career pass attempts.

Many fans and analysts say that Cassel will do a satisfactory job, but there is room for doubt. Analysts say that because of the receiving bunch the Patriots have with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Jabar Gaffney, Cassel will do fine. But, there is statistical evidence that proves a skilled quarterback makes a proficient wide receiver. Randy Moss is a fine example of this. When Moss played for the Minnesota Vikings from 1998 to 2004, Daunte Culpepper was the quarterback. With Culpepper at quarterback, Moss had 9,142 receiving yards and 90 touchdowns. Culpepper was an exceptional quarterback in those seven years. However, when Randy Moss was with the Oakland Raiders from 2005 to 2006, Moss had a total of 1558 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. The Oakland quarterbacks in those two seasons: Kerry Collins, Andrew Walter, Aaron Brooks, and Marques Tuiasosopo; none of whom have close the skill level that Culpepper had. Than in 2007 when Moss played with Brady, they accumulated record-setting, single-season numbers with 1493 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns. Now with Cassel at the helm, it seems very unlikely the receiving team will succeed and do as well as they did last season.

Cassel replacing Brady also proposes this question: Where do the Patriots go from here? The Patriot defense did lose Asante Samuel and Randall Gay, who combined for 9 interceptions last season. Teams with pass-heavy offenses, such as the Colts, Rams, and Cardinals, can take advantage of the weak secondary. Their defense is still aging significantly as Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Lewis Sanders, and Rodney Harrison are all old for NFL standards.

On the offense, the Patriots’ running game is weak compared to other NFL teams. Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris are not up to par with most NFL starters on today’s game. The offensive line is also getting old and weaker. Matt Cassel was sacked twice in the week 1 matchup against the Chiefs due to the poor job by the offensive line. The Chiefs have a subpar defensive line and teams with strong defensive lines like the Bills, Colts, Jets, and Titans can take advantage of the shaky offensive line of the Patriots. On the other hand, the Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL and that should be a relief for the New England faithful.

Now that has been said, the Patriots’ season could go in different directions. It is critical that they start off well in the next few games with the departure of Tom Brady because Cassel's confidence will be rattled if he begins to struggle. If Cassel handles the pressure well than the best-case scenario is that the Patriots maintain to win the AFC East and have somewhere between 10 and 13 wins without Brady. That would be more than remarkable for a season for a backup quarterback. The worst-case scenario is Cassel flops and the Patriots finish the season with a sub-.500 record. What can be expected? Losing Brady is colossal, especially since he was the league’s most valuable player last season. The chances of going undefeated again are slim-to-none. What will happen is up in the air, but one thing is for sure, and that is the road to the playoffs will no longer be a cake walk for the Patriots without Brady.